Tropical Cyclone Fabien formed over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 4.7°S and longitude 81.7°E which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east-northeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fabien. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien exhibited more organization on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fabien’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will intensity during the next 48 hours. Fabien is forecast to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could pass near Diego Garcia in two or three days. Fabien is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passes near Diego Garcia.