A new tropical cyclone, designated with the name Megh, formed Thursday over the same portion of the Arabian Sea where Tropical Cyclone Chapala developed.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megh was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 63.0°E which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) east of Socotra Island, Yemen.  Megh was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megh exhibited increased organization on Thursday.  A core of thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and a primary rainband spirals around the northern and western sides of the tropical cyclone.  The thunderstorms near the core of Megh are beginning to generate upper level divergence, especially toward the east.

Tropical Cyclone Megh is an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level ridge north of Megh is generating light northeasterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone, but the vertical wind shear is modest.  Megh should continue to intensify and it could reach the equivalent of hurricane intensity in a day or two.

The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Megh a little south of due west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for several days.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megh could approach Socotra Island, Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.  Since the outer portions of Tropical Cyclone Chapala caused damage on Socotra Island, a direct hit by Tropical Cyclone Megh could have a significant impact there.