Tropical Cyclone continued to intensify steadily on Saturday and it is now the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ula was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 171.4°E which put it about 400 miles (640 km) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Ula was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ula has circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (38 km).  The eye is surrounded by a closed ring of thunderstorms.  Other spiral bands are rotating around the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ula is moving through an environment that is almost perfect for intensification.  The upper level winds are very light and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  Ula is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  It intensified quickly on Saturday and it has the potential to intensify a little more before it moves over cooler SSTs.

Tropical Cyclone Ula is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the southwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  As Ula reaches the western end of the ridge it will start moving more toward the south.  Eventually the mid-latitude westerlies will start to steer Ula toward the southeast.

On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ula could pass near the extreme southeastern islands of Vanuatu.  The greatest risk is to Aneityum and Futuna.  Ula could also bring wind and rain to Tanna, Aniwa, and Erromango.  The core with the strongest winds should pass southeast of Vanuatu, but Ula could bring wind and rain to some of those islands.  The center of Ula is expected to pass east of New Caledonia early next week, but it could also bring wind and rain to the Iles Loyaute.