A tropical cyclone is organizing northwest of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has officially designated it as a tropical low.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 117.7°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  The tropical low was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation around the tropical low is still in an organizational phase and there is no well defined center of circulation.  Scattered spiral bands of thunderstorms are beginning to form and rotate around a broad center of circulation.  Much of the convection is still relatively shallow and taller thunderstorms are just beginning to form.  Some upper level divergence is beginning to occur to the west of the tropical low.

The environment is favorable for intensification.  The tropical low is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of the tropical low is generating some easterly winds over the system, but the vertical wind shear is probably not strong enough to prevent intensification.  After more thunderstorms consolidate around a center of circulation and the organization of the tropical low improves, intensification is likely.

A subtropical ridge east of the tropical low is steering the low toward the south and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track, the tropical low could make landfall somewhere along the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Mardie on Friday.  The highest probability is currently for a landfall near Port Hedland in about 48 hours.  However, uncertainty exists about the future track because the tropical low is still organizing and a well defined center of circulation does not yet exist.

The tropical low is likely to bring strong winds, locally heavy rain and some storm surge to parts of the coast of Western Australia.