Tropical Storm Javier moved slowly toward the southern tip of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 109.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Javier was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Hurricane Warnings and Watches.  A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto and from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito.

Javier is a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Javier weakened during the past few hours.  Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Research aircraft indicated that drier air in the middle levels had been pulled into the circulation of Javier.  The ingestion of the drier air weakened many of the thunderstorms and the wind speed decreased.  In addition an upper level ridge over northern Mexico appears to be causing easterly winds to blow across the top of Javier.  The vertical wind shear is tilting the circulation and the upper levels of Javier are tilted to the west of the surface center.

Tropical Storm Javier is in an environment that is not favorable for intensification.  Javier is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but the water west of Baja California is cooler.  The tropical storm is ingesting drier air and it is encountering vertical wind shear.  The proximity of Tropical Storm Javier to Baja California may also cause the terrain to disrupt the circulation.  Tropical Storm Javier may be able to maintain its intensity at times, but it is likely to weaken during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Javier is moving around the western end of a ridge over Mexico which has been steering it toward the northwest.  Since the thunderstorms in Javier are not as tall, it is being steered by winds lower in the atmosphere and those steering currents appear to be weaker.  As a result, Tropical Storm Javier moved much more slowly on Monday night.  When a tropical cyclone moves very close to Baja California, the terrain has an impact on the structure of the storm and its ultimate motion.  It is possible that the upper and lower portions of Tropical Storm Javier’s circulation could be sheared apart.  If that happens, the lower portion of the circulation could drift slowly along the west coast of Baja California.  The middle and upper portions of the circulation could be pulled north into the southwestern U.S. by an upper level trough off the west coast of the U.S.

The primary risks posed by Tropical Storm Javier are locally heavy rainfall and flash floods.  Steep terrain in parts of Baja California exacerbate the flood risk in those areas.  It is possible that some moisture associated with Tropical Storm Javier could be pulled into the southwestern U.S. later this week.  If that happens, the moisture will enhance rainfall over parts of Arizona and surrounding states.