Tropical Storm Javier formed west of Mexico on Sunday and headed for Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the government of Mexico issued Hurricane Warnings and Hurricane Watches for part of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Javier was moving to the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portions of the coast from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro and from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to San Evaristo.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto.

Part of the middle and upper level structure associate with Tropical Storm Earl moved westward across Mexico and interacted with a surface trough of low pressure near the west coast of Mexico.  The middle and upper rotation was transported to the surface and a small low pressure system formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The system was originally designated Tropical Depression 11-E early on Sunday.  A weather station at Manzanillo reported a wind from the southeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) at 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Javier.

Javier is a small tropical storm and the circulation is still organizing.  The tropical storm force winds are occurring within 100 miles (160 km) of the center of Tropical Storm Javier.  Most of the thunderstorms are in the western western half of the tropical storm and many are located close to the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center of Javier are generating upper level divergence but it is primarily moving away to the west of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Javier is in an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge centered near Texas is producing easterly winds that are blowing over the top of Javier.  The easterly winds are causing some vertical wind shear and they are inhibiting upper level divergence to the east of Javier.  Tropical Storm Jaiver may also be drawing in some drier air from Mexico, since it is close to the coast.  The wind shear and drier air will inhibit the rate of intensification, but Tropical Storm Javier should be able to extract enough energy from the warm SSTs to intensify.

Tropical Storm Javier is moving around the western end of the upper level ridge centered near Texas.  Clockwise flow around that ridge is steering Javier toward the west-northwest.  As Javier nears the western end of the ridge, it will turn more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Javier could approach the southern tip of Baja California by late Monday.

Tropical Storm Javier could do some wind damage, but the primary risks will be locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.  Tropical Storm Javier could increase the flow of moist air over the southwestern U.S. later this week and it could enhance the normal August thunderstorm activity in that region.