A distinct center of circulation consolidated within a cluster of thunderstorms south of Baja California and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kay.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kay was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Kay is only moderately well organized.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in a band that wraps around the western side of the circulation.  There are also scattered thunderstorms in broken bands around the tropical storm, but much of the convection is occurring in the western half of Kay.  The thunderstorms in the primary rainband are generating some upper level divergence which is moving air to the west of the Tropical Storm Kay.

Tropical Storm Kay is moving through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification in the short term.  Kay is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Kay is generating northeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The moderate vertical wind shear is inhibiting intensification and it is also contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The effect of the warm SSTs could allow for some additional intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Kay will be moving over cooler SSTs during the weekend and the effect of the effect of the cooler water with less energy will weaken the storm.

Tropical Storm Kay is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge and that is steering the storm toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 48 hours.  When Tropical Storm Kay moves over cooler SSTs, the thunderstorms will weaken and the circulation will become shallower.  The shallower circulation will be steered by the winds closer to the surface, which are expected to turn Tropical Storm Kay more toward the west in a couple of days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Kay will pass west of Baja California.