Strong southerly winds in the upper levels are creating vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Bavi.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Bavi was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 140.7°W which put it about 250 miles west of Guam and about 1070 miles east of the Philippines.  Bavi was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A strong upper level ridge east of Bavi is generating brisk southerly winds over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing most of the thunderstorms to occur north of the center of circulation.  The structure of the cyclone also appears to be tilted toward the north.  The poor organization of the circulation is preventing it from intensifying.  If the upper level winds do not decrease, it will be difficult for Bavi to organize further.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Bavi is steering it toward the west.  This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  The projected track would bring Bavi or its remnants near the Philippines in a few days.