Tag Archives: 03B

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Churns West of India

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ockhi churned over the Arabian Sea west of India on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 535 miles (860 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi intensified again on Saturday and it was the equivalent of a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  There was an elliptical eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye, but there was a weaker area in the eastern side of the ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The storms around the center of circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi has been moving through an environment favorable for intensification, but it will move into a less favorable environment on Sunday.  Ockhi will continue to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a strong tropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  However, an upper level trough over Saudi Arabia will approach Ockhi from the west.  Southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will increase the vertical wind shear over Tropical Cyclone Ockhi and the increased shear is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to start to weaken later on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is moving around the western end of a ridge centered over the Bay of Bengal.  The ridge is steering Ockhi toward the northwest.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will turn more toward the north on Sunday when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  The upper level trough approaching Ockhi from Saudi Arabia will steer the tropical cyclone toward the northeast in about 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will approach the west coast of India north of Mumbai in about 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Strengthens to Hurricane Equivalent

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday as it moved over the Arabian Sea west of India.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 655 miles (1055 km) south of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi continued to intensify on Friday and it is now the equivalent of a hurricane or typhoon.  An eye has appeared intermittently on satellite imagery.  A ring of strong storms surrounded the eye, although there have been occasional breaks in the northeastern segment of the ring.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring outside the core of the circulation.  There were more showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west and north of the cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will continue to be in an environment favorable for intensification for another 24 to 48 hours.  Ockhi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Ockhi is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds may be the reason why more of the stronger rainbands are in the western half of the circulation.  The winds are also causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is likely to continue to intensify for another 24 to 36 hours and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Ockhi toward the west-northwest.  Ockhi will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the upper level ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will approach the midlatitude westerly winds in two or three days and those winds will start to steer Ockhi more toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ockhi could approach the west coast of India in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi Strengthens Quickly Southwest of India

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi strengthened quickly southwest of India on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 76.2°E which put it about 810 miles (1305 km) south-southeast of Mumbai, India.  Ockhi was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The core of the circulation of a tropical depression that developed near Sri Lanka on Wednesday organized quickly on Thursday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eye began to appear on some satellite imagery.  The storms in the eyewall were strongest west of the eye and weakest north of the eye.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Ockhi generated strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and west of the tropical cyclone.  The divergence was allowing the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Ockhi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is near the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but they are also enhancing the upper level divergence to the north and west of Tropical Cyclone Ockhi.  The positive effects of enhanced divergence will exceed the negative effects of the vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly.  Ockhi will likely become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge is currently steering Tropical Cyclone Ockhi toward the west-northwest.  Ockhi will turn more toward the north in a day or two when it reaches the western end of the ridge.   On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ockhi will move farther away from the coast of India during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The outer rainbands on the eastern side of Ockhi will drop locally heavy rain over portions of southern India and flash floods could occur in some places.  Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is likely to turn toward the northeast in three or four days and it could eventually make landfall in western India.

Tropical Cyclone Kyant Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Kyant formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyant was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 90.4°E which put it about 480 miles (770 km) east of Vishakhapatnam, India.  Kyant was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms persisted over the eastern Bay of Bengal during the past few days, but strong upper level easterly winds prevented the development of the system.  The upper level winds began to diminish on Monday and a low level circulation center began to develop on the eastern edge of the area of thunderstorms.  When the upper level winds became weaker, then thunderstorms were able to develop closer to the center of circulation.  The system acquired the structural characteristics associated with a tropical cyclone and the India Meteorological Department named it Kyant.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Kyant is still organizing.  Some vertical wind shear continues because of easterly upper level winds being generated by a ridge northeast of the tropical cyclone.  The shear is causing more of the thunderstorms to form in the western half of the circulation.  However, additional thunderstorms have developed closer to the center in recent hours and some spiral rainbands have formed.  The thunderstorms near the center are generating upper level divergence which is starting to pump out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Kyant will be moving through a favorable environment during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds should remain weaker, and the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening.  Tropical Cyclone Kyant is likely to intensify and it could undergo a period of rapid intensification.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Kyant toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyant could approach the east coast of India in about 48 hours.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to portions of eastern India later this week.