Tag Archives: Ryukyu Islands

Tropical Storm Co-may Drops Heavy Rain on Taiwan

Tropical Storm Co-may dropped heavy rain on Taiwan on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Co-may was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 123.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Co-may was moving toward the northeast at 41 m.p.h. (67 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Even though the center of Tropical Storm Co-may was passing east of Taiwan, bands in the western side of Co-may’s circulation were dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Taiwan.

Heavy Rain Advisories were in effect for parts of southern Taiwan.

Strong vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Storm Co-may to weaken as it passed east of Taiwan on Friday.  An upper level low centered over eastern China was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Co-may’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing Tropical Storm Co-may to weaken.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Co-may became asymmetrical when Co-may weakened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Co-may’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Co-may were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Co-may will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Co-may will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, it will move under the eastern side of the upper level low that is centered over eastern China.  The upper level low will continue to produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Co-may’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Co-may to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 24 hours.

The upper low over eastern China will steer Tropical Storm Co-may quickly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Co-may will move across the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Co-may will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Francisco weakened to a tropical depression north of Taiwan and Tropical Storm Krosa strengthened gradually west of the Marianas.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Francisco was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 121.4°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) north of Taipei, Taiwan.  Francisco was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Krosa was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 143.8°E which put the center about 225 miles (365 km) northwest of Saipan.  Krosa was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Co-may Forms West of Luzon

Tropical Storm Co-may formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of Luzon on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Co-may was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 118.7°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) west of Vigan, Philippines.  Co-may was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean west of Luzon strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Co-may.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Co-may was organizing quickly.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Co-may’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Co-may.  Storms near the center of Co-may generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the western side of Tropical Storm Co-may.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western half of Co-may’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Co-may were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Co-may will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Co-may will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern side of an upper level low that is centered east of Taiwan.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Co-may’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Co-may will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Co-may could strengthen to a typhoon on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Co-may will get pulled toward the northeast by the much larger circulation around Tropical Storm Francisco.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Co-may will approach northern Luzon in 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Co-may could be a typhoon when it approaches the coast of northwestern Luzon.  Co-may will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides.  Tropical Storm Co-may is likely to cause widespread outages of electricity in northern Luzon.  Co-may could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northwestern Luzon.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Francisco strengthened a little as it moved toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Francisco was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 129.1°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Francisco was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Francisco Develops South of Okinawa

Tropical Storm Francisco developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Okinawa on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Francisco was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 129.7°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Francisco was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Okinawa strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Francisco.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Francisco on Tuesday night.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern side of Francisco’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Francisco consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Francisco generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east and south of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Francisco was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Francisco’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Francisco will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level low that is centered east of Taiwan.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Francisco’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Francisco is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Francisco will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Francisco toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Francisco will move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 11W formed north of Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Depression 11W was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 120.1°E which put the center about 295 miles (470 km) north of Manila, Philippines.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Pulasan Forms Southeast of Ryukyu Islands

Tropical Storm Pulasan formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of the Ryukyu Islands on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Pulasan was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 137.8°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) south-southwest of Iwo To.  Pulasan was moving toward the west-northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Pulasan was very large, but there were not many thunderstorms present.  Bands revolving around the center of Pulasan’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the far eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Pulasan.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band in the far southern periphery of Pulasan’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Pulasan was very large, but the distribution of wind speeds was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) in the eastern side of Pulasan’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Pulasan were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Pulasan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the eastern side of a large upper level low centered east of Taiwan.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Pulasan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pulasan could intensify a little during the next 24 hours if the wind shear does not get any stronger.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will move around the northern side of a large counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a monsoon gyre.  The large counterclockwise circulation will steer Pulasan quickly toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pulasan will be near the Ryukyu Islands in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Pulasan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, former Typhoon Bebinca weakened to a tropical depression over eastern China.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Bebinca was located at latitude 32.0°N and longitude 117.0°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) west of Nanjing, China.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Bebinca Forms Near Guam

Tropical Storm Bebinca formed near Guam on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bebinca located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 144.0°E which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Guam.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the coastal waters of Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.

A low pressure system near Guam strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Bebinca.  Bebinca brought wind and rain to the Marianas.  A weather station at Guam International Airport (PGUM) reported a sustained wind speed of 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (73 km/h).

The circulation around Tropical Storm Bebinca was exhibiting more organization on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Bebinca’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Bebinca.  Bands in the western side of Bebinca’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bebinca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Bebinca was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Bebinca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the other parts of Tropical Storm Bebinca.

Tropical Storm Bebinca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bebinca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bebinca’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bebinca will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Bebinca is likely to strengthen to a typhoon later this week.

Tropical Storm Bebinca will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bebinca toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bebinca will move west of the Marianas.  Bebinca could approach the Ryukyu Islands by the end of the week.

Typhoon Shanshan Strengthens to Equivalent of a Cat. 4 Hurricane

Typhoon Shanshan strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the northern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 130.0°E which put the center about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Kamiyaku, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Shanshan’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Shanshan.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Shanshan was symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Shanshan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of Typhoon Shanshan.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Shanshan was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.2.  Typhoon Shanshan was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Shanshan toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Shanshan will toward western Kyushu.  Shanshan could approach western Kyushu in 36 hours.

Typhoon Shanshan will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in the northern Ryukyu Islands.  The eastern side of the eyewall of Shanshan will move near Yakushima.  Shanshan will be capable of causing severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Shanshan will also cause a storm surge in the northern Ryukyu Islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

 

Typhoon Shanshan Intensifies to the Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Shanshan intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane near the northern Ryukyu Islands on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 28.3°N and longitude 130.6°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) east of Naze, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday evening as it moved slowly near the northern Ryukyu Islands.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Shanshan’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Shanshan.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Shanshan was symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Shanshan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Typhoon Shanshan.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Shanshan was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.8.  Typhoon Shanshan was similar in size to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Shanshan was stronger than Delta was.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Shanshan slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Shanshan will move over the northern Ryukyu Islands.  Shanshan could approach southwestern Japan in 48 hours. Shanshan could be a strong typhoon when it approaches Kyushu.

Typhoon Shanshan will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern Ryukyu Islands.  Shanshan will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Shanshan will also cause a storm surge on the northern Ryukyu Islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Typhoon Gaemi Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Gaemi strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Taiwan on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Gaemi was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 123.2°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Gaemi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Typhoon Gaemi rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale east of Taiwan on Tuesday.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) formed at the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storm.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Gaemi.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Gaemi was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of Typhoon Gaemi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Gaemi was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 31.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 59.3.  Typhoon Gaemi was similar in size to Hurricane Wilma when Wilma hit South Florida in 2005.  Gaemi is stronger than Wilma was when it hit South Florida.

Typhoon Gaemi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Gaemi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Gaemi could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Gaemi will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Typhoon Gaemi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Gaemi will approach the coast of northeastern Taiwan in 12 hours.

Typhoon Gaemi will bring very strong winds and torrential rain to Taiwan.  Gaemi will be capable of causing extensive severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash floods.  Typhoon Gaemi will also be capable of causing a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the east coast of Taiwan.

Typhoon Gaemi will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  The strongest part Gaemi’s circulation will pass southwest of the Ryukyu Islands, but the typhoon is likely to some wind damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Gaemi will move toward the east coast of China after is crosses northern Taiwan.  Gaemi could approach the coast of China in less than 36 hours.  Typhoon Gaemi will weaken when it moves over Taiwan, but Gaemi could still be a typhoon when it reaches China.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Prapiroon weakened to a tropical depression over northern Vietnam.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Prapiroon was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 107.0°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Lang Son, Vietnam.  Prapiroon was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Gaemi Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Gaemi formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines early on Saturday.   At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 128.2°E which put the center about 520 miles (840 km) south-southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Gaemi was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened early on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Gaemi.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Gaemi was starting to exhibit more organization.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Gaemi’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi.  Storms near the center of Gaemi started to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Gaemi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gaemi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gaemi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Gaemi is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  Gaemi could strengthen to a typhoon by early next week.

Tropical Storm Gaemi will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Gaemi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gaemi will move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.  Gaemi could be a typhoon when it approaches the southern Ryukyu Islands early next week.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 04W formed over the South China Sea.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression 04W was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 113.8°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Haikou, China.   The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Typhoon Ewiniar Moves Away From Luzon

Typhoon Ewiniar moved away from Luzon on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Ewiniar was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 124.3°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tuguegarao, Philippines. Ewiniar was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

After intensifying rapidly on Sunday, Typhoon Ewiniar showed signs of weakening on Monday. A small eye with a diameter of 5 miles (8 km) was still present at the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. However, there were breaks in the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye. Storms near the center of Ewiniar still were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the typhoon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ewiniar.

The circulation around Typhoon Ewiniar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Ewiniar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ewiniar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. An upper level trough near the east coast of China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewiniar’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Since the circulation around Ewiniar is small, an increase in wind shear will have a larger effect on the typhoon. Typhoon Ewiniar is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours when the vertical wind shear increases.

Typhoon Ewiniar will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system and the upper level trough near the east coast of China will steer Ewiniar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Ewiniar will continue to move farther away from Luzon. Ewiniar will pass southeast of the Ryukyu Islands during the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Remal continued to drop heavy rain on Bangladesh. There were reports that Remal caused fatalities in Bangladesh. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Remal was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 85 miles (140 km) southwest of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Remal was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.