Tag Archives: Toliara

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Spins West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 23.0°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west-northwest of Taliara, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning over the Mozambique Channel west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. Cheneso was starting to move away from cooler water that it mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel while it was stationary earlier this week. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Cheneso’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming again. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the western end of an upper level ridge that is centered east of Madagascar. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the south. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain west of Madagascar. Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Cheneso could produce locally heavy rain over southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the weekend. The trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Cheneso will move over cooler water when it moves southeast. A combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 23.4°S and longitude 44.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the east at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar near Toliara on Tuesday. Jasmine was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move east across the southern end of Madagascar during the next 18 hours. Jasmine will weaken as it moves over southern Madagascar but it will continue to produce gusty winds. The gusty winds could cause minor damage and electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in places with steep slopes.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Moves Toward Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved toward southwest Madagascar on Monday night. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 41.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened slightly on Monday night as it moved over the Mozambique Channel toward southwest Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasmine’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern past of the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the core of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could intensify during the next few hours, but it may start to weaken later on Tuesday when the shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer tropical cyclone Jasmine toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasmine will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar during the next 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could make landfall near Toliara in 15 to 18 hours. Jasmine will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai over Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsiria was located over southwest Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 43.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Toliara, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was just northeast of Toliara, Madagascar on Sunday morning. Batsirai was still dropping locally heavy rain over parts of southwestern Madagascar. The heaviest rain was falling on the western sides of mountains where the wind was blowing the air up the slopes. The threat for flash floods continued. The inner core of Batsirai’s circulation was disrupted when it moved over the mountains on Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. The strongest wind were occurring in the parts of Batsirai’s circulation that were over water. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Batsirai.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over the Mozambique Channel in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southwestern Madagascar on Sunday. Even though Batsirai has weakened, the potential for flash floods still exists. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move toward the south on Monday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. Batsirai could strengthen after the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 46.3°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Beroroha, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Manajary on Saturday. Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved toward the west-southwest after it made landfall. The center of Batsirai passed just to the north of Fianarantsoa. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened steadily after it moved over Madagascar, but it was still the equivalent of a strong tropical storm on Saturday night. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move across southwestern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central and southern Madagascar on Sunday. Even though Batsirai has weakened, the potential for flash floods remains high. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could move over the Mozambique Channel north of Toliara in 18 hours. Batsirai could strengthen after the center moves back over water.