Tag Archives: Philippines

Typhoon Hagupit Intensies Rapidly As It Nears Yap

Typhoon Hagupit intensified rapidly on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hagupit was located at latitude 7.9°N and longitude 139.5°E which put it about 190 miles southeast of Yap and about 1330 miles east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 105 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 130 m.p.h.

Hagupit is in an environment favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the upper level winds remain light.  The upper level outflow is well developed and it continues to pump out mass and allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Hagupit is likely to continue to intensify on Wednesday and it could reach Super Typhoon intensity in several days.

Hagupit is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge located to its north.  On this track the center of Hagupit will pass just south of Yap in a few hours.  An upper level trough in the westerly flow near Japan will weaken the subtropical ridge and Hagupit is likely to move more slowly in two or three days.  The winds at the steering level will be weak in three or four days and the longer term track of Hagupit is more uncertain.  There is a possibility that it could be steered westward toward the Philippines.

Tropical Storm Hagupit Organizing Rapidly South of Guam

Tropical Depression 22W organized rapidly on Monday and intensified into Tropical Storm Hagupit.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 6.1°N and longitude 146.0°E which put it about 490 miles south-southeast of Guam and about 570 miles east-southeast of Yap.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 24 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h.

Hagupit has developed multiple spiral bands of thunderstorms and there are some indications that an eye may be forming at the center of the circulation.  There is a large and well developed circulation around the tropical storm.  The winds in the upper levels are relatively light and upper level divergence continues to pump out mass from the center of circulation.  Hagupit will continue to move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the environment is favorable for continued intensification.  Hagupit could become a typhoon on Tuesday and it could be a strong typhoon in several days.

A subtropical ridge north of Hagupit is steering the storm toward the west and it is likely to steer the tropical storm in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next 48-72 hours.  The projected path would bring Hagupit very close to Yap in about 36 hours.   There is more uncertainty about the possible track of Hagupit after it passes Yap because an upper level trough moving north of the storm could weaken the subtropical ridge.  If the ridge weakens, the winds at the steering level could become weaken and the motion of Hagupit could slow.

 

Tropical Depression 21W Bringing Rain to Central Philippines

Tropical Depression 21W (TD 21W) is bringing rain to parts of the Central Philippines as it moves toward the west-northwest.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of TD 21W was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 122.9°E which put it about 70 miles east of Cebu and about 350 miles south-southeast of Manila.  TD21W was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h.

TD 21W appears to be developing some spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms and it could become more organized as it moves away from the Philippines.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and upper level outflow appears to be developing.  As a result of those factors TD 21W could intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24-36 hours.  Available guidance suggest that TD 21W will continue to move in a general west-northwesterly direction and it could approach the coast of Vietnam in about three days.