Tag Archives: IO04

Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala on Track for Landfall in Yemen

Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala moved steadily westward on Saturday and it remains on track for a landfall in Yemen.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman and about 465 miles (765 km) east of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 135 m.p.h. (215 km) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Chapala continues to be a strong well organized tropical cyclone and it is the equivalent of a major hurricane.  It has a symmetrical circulation with a well formed eye inside a core of thunderstorms.  Multiple rainbands are rotation around the center of circulation.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala remains in a favorable environment.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  There is not much vertical wind shear and Chapala could maintain its intensity until it approaches the coast of Yemen.  When Chapala gets nearer the coast, it will start to pull in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  As Chapala ingests the drier air, it will start to weaken.

A ridge north of Chapala is steering the tropical cyclone westward.  As Chapala nears the western end of the ridge, it will start to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chapala will approach the central coast of Yemen in 36 to 48 hours.  The core of Chapala will pass north of the island of Socotra on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Becomes Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chapala intensified rapidly on Friday and it became the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 59.9°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Chapala was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala is a very well organized tropical cyclone.  It has a well defined eye and a strong core of thunderstorms around the eye.  Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to fall rapidly.

Chapala is an environment favorable for tropical cyclones.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  However, a secondary eyewall may be developing and eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity for the next day or two.  When Chapala approaches the Arabian peninsula, it will start to pull in very dry air, and that will weaken the tropical cyclone even before it makes landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chapala toward the west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for another 36 to 48 hours.  As Chapala reaches the western end of the ridge, it could turn more toward the northwest.  Tropical Cyclone Chapala could be approaching the coast of Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Intensifies Rapidly

Tropical Cyclone Chapala intensified rapidly on Thursday and it is almost the equivalent of a major hurricane.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 535 miles (865 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Chapala was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Chapala has a very well organized, symmetrical circulation.  There is a well formed eye which is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Several spiral bands are rotating around the core of the cyclone.  The thunderstorms surrounding the eye are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala is an environment that favors further intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Chapala could intensify to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Friday.  After that time eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity.

A ridge in north of Chapala is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west.  That same general steering motion is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chapala could be approaching the area near the border between Oman and Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.  It could be an intense tropical cyclone at that time.