Tag Archives: Baja California

Tropical Storm Eugene Forms South of Baja California

A distinct center of circulation consolidated within a broader area of low pressure south of Baja California on Friday and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Eugene.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 111.2°W which put it about 765 miles (1230 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Eugene was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Eugene is large and there are numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms rotating around the center of circulation.  A primary rainband is wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center and the strongest winds are occurring northeast of the center of circulation.  The circulation is circular and symmetrical.  Thunderstorms around the core of Eugene are beginning to generate upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Eugene will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Eugene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds over Tropical Storm Eugene are relatively weak and there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Eugene will continue to consolidate and it is likely to intensify during the weekend.  It is likely to become a hurricane and it could intensify rapidly if an eye forms.

Tropical Storm Eugene is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  A generally northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Eugene would move parallel to the west coast of Baja California and the center would remain west of the coast.

Hurricane Dora Weakens South of Baja California

Hurricane Dora weakened as it moved over cooler water south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 245 miles (400 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Dora as moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Dora is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 24°C.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Dora is still very well organized but it is unable to extract sufficient energy from the upper ocean to maintain its intensity.  As a result, the showers and thunderstorms are not rising as far into the atmosphere and the circulation is spinning down.  There is little vertical wind shear and so the circulation is still symmetrical, but it is not as vigorous.  The lack of wind shear will cause the weakening to occur more slowly than it would have if the upper level winds were stronger.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Storm Dora toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for anther day or two.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dora will move farther away from Baja California.  The forecast track would keep Dora over cooler SSTs and it should continue to weaken.

Dora Rapidly Intensifies Into First Eastern Pacific Hurricane of 2017

Tropical Storm Dora intensified rapidly into a hurricane during the overnight hours.  Dora is the first hurricane to develop over the Eastern North Pacific during 2017.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Dora was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 106.3°W which put it about 220 miles (350 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Dora was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Dora is very well organized.  A circular eye exists at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in Dora are generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping large quantities of mass out in all directions.

Dora is a small hurricane.  Wind to hurricane force extend out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 7.3.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.0.

Hurricane Dora will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  It is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  Dora will move over SSTs that will gradually be cooler, but they should be warm enough to support further intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Hurricane Dora is moving through an area where upper level winds are weak and there is almost no vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Dora is likely to strengthen further during the next few hours.  Dora will move over much cooler SSTs when it passes south of Baja California and it will begin to weaken on Tuesday.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Dora is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Dora will pass south of Baja California.

TD 04E Strengthens Rapidly Into Tropical Storm Dora

Tropical Depression Four-E strengthened rapidly into Tropical Storm Dora on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 104.3°W which put ti about 290 miles (470 km) south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Dora was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Dora organized quickly on Sunday.  A primary rainband wrapped tightly around the center of circulation.  An eyelike feature appeared to be forming on microwave and infrared satellite images.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed outside the core of Tropical Storm Dora.  Thunderstorms around the core generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass in all directions.

Tropical Storm Dora will be moving through an environment very favorable for intensification on Monday.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge over Mexico is producing easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but there is little vertical wind shear.  A combination of warm water and little shear will allow Dora to intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  The rate of intensification could increase once the formation of the eye is complete.  Dora will move over cooler SSTs on Tuesday.  The cooler SSTs will initially halt the intensification.  When Dora is unable to extract sufficient energy from the upper ocean it will start to weaken.

A subtropical ridge northeast of Dora is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and a general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Dora will remain southwest of Mexico.  Dora will pass south of Baja California on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Four-E Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Depression Four-E formed south of Acapulco, Mexico on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 100.0°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of Acapulco.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A distinct surface center of circulation developed within a larger area of thunderstorms south of Mexico on Saturday.  Showers and thunderstorms began to consolidate near the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of the circulation.  The thunderstorms began to produce upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the core of the depression.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico is enhancing the upper level divergence to the northeast of the tropical depression.  An upper level ridge over Mexico is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear is minimal.  Tropical Depression Four-E could intensify in a tropical storm on Sunday.  It has a chance to become a hurricane early next week before it reaches cooler water south of Baja California.

A subtropical ridge over Mexico is steering Tropical Depression Four-E toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Four-E is expected to remain south of the coast of Mexico.  Rainbands in the northern portion of the circulation could produce locally heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico.  The greatest risk would be for flash floods in those areas.

Tropical Storm Tina Forms West of Manzanillo

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system west of Mexico on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Tina.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Tina was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 107.1°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) west of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Tina was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Tina is not well organized.  Although there is a definite center of circulation in the lower levels, most of the thunderstorms are developing north and east of the center of circulation.  An upper level trough southwest of California is generating southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Tina.  The strong vertical wind shear is tilting the circulation and it is causing the thunderstorms to be concentrated in the northeastern quadrant of the circulation.  The upper level winds are also inhibiting upper level divergence.

Although Tropical Storm Tina is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for intensification.  The strong vertical wind shear will prevent any significant intensification.  In fact, if the upper level winds get much stronger, the shear could blow the top half of the circulation northeast of the bottom half.  In that case the low level circulation will quickly spin down and dissipate.

If the vertical integrity of the circulation is maintained, then the upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Tina toward the northeast and into Mexico.  However, if the circulation shears apart, a surface high pressure system could steer it slowly toward the west.  In either case the upper level winds could transport some moist air over Jalisco and Colima, where it could enhance rainfall.

Seymour Strengthens Into a Cat. 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Seymour strengthened into a small but very powerful Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Seymour was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 117.7°W which put it about 690 miles (1110 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.   Seymour was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

The circulation of Hurricane Seymour is very small, but it is very well organized.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (12 km) which is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Winds to hurricane force only extend out about 18 miles (29 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 31.6, but the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is only 7.1.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index is 38.7.  Hurricane Seymour is not as strong as Hurricane Patricia was in 2015 and Seymour is smaller than Patricia was.  When Hurricane Patricia had maximum sustained winds of 200 m.p.h. (320 km) its HSI ranged between 11.3 and 13.8.

Hurricane Seymour will remain in a very favorable environment for another 6 to 12 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  The upper level winds will be light and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Later on Wednesday the upper level winds will increase and Hurricane Seymour will begin to move over cooler SSTs.  The increasingly unfavorable environment will cause Seymour to weaken.  Because of the small size of Seymour’s circulation, wind shear could cause the hurricane to weaken quickly.

Hurricane Seymour is moving around the western end of a ridge that is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest.  When Seymour reaches the western end of the ridge, the hurricane will begin to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Seymour will weaken well to the west of Baja California.  An upper level trough moving over the Northern Pacific Ocean could eventually transport some of the moisture from Hurricane Seymour over the western U.S.

Seymour Rapidly Intensifies into a Cat. 2 Hurricane

Tropical Storm Seymour rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday as it moved farther away from Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Seymour was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 112.6°W which put it about 540 miles (870 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Seymour was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Hurricane Seymour intensified very rapidly on Monday.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) in a 24 hour period.  The circulation contracted and the primary rainband wrapped tightly around a small eye.  Seymour is a very small hurricane and hurricane force winds only extend out about 12 miles (19 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 70 miles (130 km) from the center.  Although Seymour is a small hurricane, the circulation is well organized.  The small eye is surrounded by an almost continuous ring of thunderstorms.  Several other spiral bands are rotating around the core of Hurricane Seymour.  Thunderstorms in the core are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Hurricane Seymour will remain in a favorable environment on Tuesday.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Seymour is likely to intensify on Tuesday and it could become a major hurricane.  When Seymour moves farther to the west, it will be nearer to an upper level trough which will produce southwesterly winds over the hurricane.  Increased vertical wind shear will begin to weaken Hurricane Seymour.

A ridge over Mexico is steering Hurricane Seymour toward the west and that general motion will occur for another 24 to 36 hours.  Hurricane Seymour will approach the western end of the ridge on Wednesday, and the hurricane will turn more toward the north when that happens.  On its anticipated track this turn will occur well to the west of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Seymour Develops Quickly West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Seymour developed quickly west of Mexico on Sunday and it brought to an end a stretch of three quiet weeks over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Seymour was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 107.1°W which put it about 370 miles (590 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Seymour was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation in a cluster of thunderstorms organized quickly on Sunday afternoon.  A primary rainband around the northern and western sides of the circulation wrapped almost entirely around the center and an eye appeared to be forming on microwave satellite images.  Additional bands of thunderstorms were developing.  Thunderstorms in the core of Seymour were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Seymour will be moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level winds are relatively weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Seymour will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly.  Seymour will become a hurricane and it could become a major hurricane.

A ridge over Mexico is steering Tropical Storm Seymour toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  When Seymour reaches the western end of the ridge, it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Seymour will make the northward turn well to the southwest of Baja California.

Hurricane Paine Prompts Warnings for Part of Baja California

Tropical Storm Paine intensified into a hurricane on Monday and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Baja California.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Paine was located at latitude 23.4°N and longitude 116.5°W which put it about 315 miles (510 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Paine was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

There is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin.

The circulation of Hurricane Paine is showing signs of weakening.  It had a well formed eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms a few hours ago.  The eye is no longer apparent on infrared satellite imagery.  There are still thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  The circulation appears to be pulling cooler, drier and more stable air around the southwestern quadrant of Hurricane Paine.  More thunderstorms are occurring in rainbands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.  There are few thunderstorms in the rainbands in the eastern half of Hurricane Paine.

Hurricane Paine will be moving into an environment that will be very unfavorable for a tropical cyclone.  The center is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 24°C.  It will move over water where the SST will be less than 22°C on Tuesday.  Less energy in the upper ocean and cooler, more stable air will cause the circulation to weaken and it could weaken quickly.  An upper level low southwest of California will generate some vertical wind shear which could separate the upper part of Hurricane Paine from the lower level circulation as Paine weakens.

Hurricane Paine is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over Mexico which is steering Paine toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Paine will pass west of Punta Eugenia on Tuesday.  The center or the upper part of the circulation could be near Cabo San Quintin on Wednesday morning.  It is expected to weaken to a tropical depression or a remnant low before it reaches Cabo San Quintin.  However, Paine could bring tropical storm force winds to a portion of the coast, which is why the Tropical Storm Warning was issued.