Odile Becomes a Hurricane

Tropical Storm Odile has intensified into a hurricane as it moves slowly toward the northwest off the west coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 106.0°W which put it about 200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 505 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Odile was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

The upper level high over northern Mexico that was generating northeasterly winds over Odile has shifted eastward.  As a result, the upper level wind shear has decreased and Odile is intensifying.  Odile will be over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) during the next several days and it should continue to intensify.  A period of more rapid intensification is possible.

The winds in the middle level steering Odile should keep pushing it in a northwesterly direction.  Much of the computer guidance suggests that Odile will pass south of the tip of Baja California and then move west of Baja.  It could take a path similar to the track taken by Hurricane Norbert.

The government of Mexico issued a new Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Baja California that extends from La Paz to Santa Fe.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

If Odile moves west of Baja California, southerly winds in the eastern half of the circulation could transport significant water vapor over the southwestern U.S.  In addition, a strong flow of moist air is occurring over northeastern Mexico associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave moving inland in that area.  The combination of these two flows of moist air could create a potential for locally heavy rains over parts of the southwestern U.S. next week.