Tag Archives: Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Nathan Crossing Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Nathan made landfall in Queensland and it is now crossing the Cape York Peninsula.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nathan was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 142.2°E which put it about 75 miles west-southwest of Coen, about 80 miles north-northeast of Kowanyama and about 530 miles east-southeast of Alyangula, Australia.  Nathan was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Nathan has been weakening as it moves across the Cape York Peninsula in Northern Queensland.  However, it is approaching the Gulf of Carpentaria and the center of circulation will soon be back over water.  The circulation is still mostly intact and it has well developed upper level outflow.  The water at the surface of the Gulf of Carpentaria is very warm.  In addition, the upper level winds around Nathan are very light and there is very little vertical wind shear.  So, the environment around Nathan is quite favorable for intensification and it is possible that a period of rapid re-intensification could occur.

A subtropical ridge is expected to steer Nathan in a west-northwesterly direction during the next several days.  The projected track would have Nathan making another landfall in the Northern Territory between Port Roper and Nhulunbuy in 24 to 36 hours.  If Nathan does reintensify it could bring strong winds and a storm surge to the coast.  It will also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flooding in inland locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Nathan Forms Over the Coral Sea

Another tropical cyclone formed in an elongated trough of low pressure over the southwestern Pacific Ocean.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nathan was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 146.8°E which put it about 150 miles northeast of Cooktown, Australia and about 250 miles south of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.  It was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Nathan is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures, but it is being partly influenced by some of the upper level outflow from large Tropical Cyclone Pam which is located farther east.  The wind shear is reducing the rate of intensification, but the environment is favorable enough that continued intensification is likely during the next day or two.

The track forecast for Nathan has a high degree of uncertainty.  It is currently being steered to the west-southwest by a subtropical ridge that is north of the circulation center.  That ridge is predicted to weaken and westerly winds are expected to turn the tropical cyclone back toward the east.  However, the timing of that turn is important.  The center of Nathan could come very close to the coast of Queensland.  If the turn does not occur, Nathan could bring high winds and heavy rain to portions of northern Queensland.

 

Lam and Marcia Equivalent of Major Hurricanes As They Affect Australia

Both Severe Cyclone Lam and Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia intensified rapidly during the past few hours and both storms are now the equivalent of major hurricanes.  Lam is making landfall on the north coast of Australia just to the southwest of Elcho Island.  The motion of Marcia has slowed, but it is approaching the coast of Queensland.

At 8:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Lam was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 135.4°E which put it about 12 miles west-northwest of Galiwinku and about 35 miles east-northeast of Milingimbi, Australia.  Lam was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h., which makes Lam the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  It was estimate that there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

At 8:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Marcia was located at latitude 20.8°S and longitude 150.6°S which put it about 150 miles east of Mackay and about 160 miles north of Yeppoon, Australia.  Lam was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h., which makes Marcia the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  It was estimated that there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Both tropical cyclones are capable of causing significant wind damage.  They are also capable of generating a significant storm surge near where the center makes landfall.  Locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding exists, as the storms move inland.

 

Tropical Cyclone Marcia Intensifying Quickly as It Nears Australia

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Marcia is organizing rapidly as it moves toward eastern Australia.  An eye is apparent on visible satellite imagery and Marcia rapidly intensified to hurricane intensity.  At 1:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Marcia was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 151.0°E which put it about 125 miles east-northeast of Mackay and about 180 miles north-northeast of Yeppoon, Australia.  Marcia was moving toward the west-southwest at 16 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 135 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Marcia has developed an eye and thunderstorms completely surround it.  The core of Marcia is symmetrical which indicates a well organized storm.  As Marcia moved toward the southwest, it moved west of the strongest upper level winds, which reduced the vertical wind shear.  Marcia was over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the more favorable environment allowed it to intensify quickly.  It will remain in a favorable environment until it makes landfall and further intensification is possible.

Marcia is near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it to the southwest.  Once the system moves inland, it is likely to move in more of a southerly direction, but it should be weaker by that time.

Marcia could make landfall in around 12 hours near the Northumberland Isles between Mackay and Yeppoon.  The rapid organization of the circulation increased the destructive potential of Marcia.  It is strong enough to cause wind damage and it could cause a storm surge near where the center makes landfall.  The stronger circulation could also produce locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding as it moves inland.

 

Tropical Cyclone 13P Forms Northeast of Australia

A second tropical cyclone formed near the coast of Australia when a center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms northeast of Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13P was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 155.9°E which put it 385 miles east of Willis Island and about 800 miles north of Brisbane, Australia.  It was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 13P is near the western end of a subtropical ridge and moderately strong northerly winds are blowing over the top of the circulation, especially over the eastern half of it.  As a result, more thunderstorms are forming in the western half of the circulation.  The tropical cyclone is over Sea Surface Temperatures that are warm enough to support intensification.  The upper level northerly winds are enhancing outflow to the south of the circulation and so some intensification is possible.

The subtropical ridge is expected to steer Tropical Cyclone 13P in a generally southwesterly direction, which will move it toward the east coast of Australia.  A landfall near Gladstone could occur in 36 to 48 hours.