Tag Archives: Tokyo

Typhoon Sanvu Brings Wind and Rain to Chichi Jima

Typhoon Sanvu is bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and heavy rain to Chichi JIma, Japan.  Sanvu strengthened during the past several days while it meandered around Chichi Jima.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center to Typhoon Sanvu was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 142.0°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north-northwest of Chichi Jima, Japan.  Sanvu was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The organization of Typhoon Sanvu has been slowly improving.  An eye developed at the center of Sanvu as the typhoon moved slowly over Chichi Jima.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounds the eye.  The strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  A primary band of thunderstorms wraps around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms are developing outside the core of Typhoon Sanvu.  Most of the bands are developing in the southern half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Sanvu are producing upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the north of the typhoon.

Typhoon Sanvu will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of Sanvu is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation, but there is not much vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sanvu is likely to continue to strengthen for another 24 to 48 hours.  Eventually, Sanvu will move over colder water and the wind shear will increase.  It will start to weaken when that happens.

Sanvu is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which steering the typhoon toward the north.  When Typhoon Sanvu moves farther north, it will be steered by an upper level trough over Japan.  Southwesterly winds will steer Sanvu toward the northeast at a faster speed in a day or two.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sanvu would stay east of Tokyo, but it could affect the northernmost islands of Japan in four or five days.  Conditions in Chichi Jima should improve slowly as Typhoon Sanvu moves farther away.

Powerful Typhoon Malakas Nearing Kyushu

Powerful Typhoon Malakas moved steadily closer to Kyushu on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Malakas was centered at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 127.9°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) southwest of Kagoshima, Japan.  Malakas was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Malakas remains well organized and it is taking on the typical structure of a strong tropical cyclone that is starting to recurve.  The size of the eye increased during the past 24 hours.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms which is thinner south of the eye.  There are several strong rainbands, but they are primarily in the northern half of the circulation.  The circulation is beginning to pull drier air around the southern side of Malakas which is why the rainbands in that part of the typhoon are weaker.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Malakas are generating upper level divergence that is pumping out mass toward the northeast.

Typhoon Malakas is moving through an environment that should allow it to maintain its intensity during the next few hours.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough to the west of Japan is generating southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  However, the vertical wind shear is moderate enough to allow Typhoon Malakas to maintain its intensity in the short term.  When Malakas moves farther to the northeast, it will move into a region where where upper level winds are stronger and the vertical wind shear will increase.  More vertical wind shear and the interaction of the circulation with Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu will cause Malakas to weaken.

The upper level trough will continue to steer Typhoon Malakas toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Malakas will be near southwest Kyushu in about 12 hours.  It will be near Shikoku in 20 hours and is could be near Honshu in 30 hours.

Typhoon Malakas will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southwestern Kyushu.  It is likely to still be a typhoon when it passes near the coast of Shikoku.  Malakas could be a tropical storm when it passes south of Kyoto and when it moves near Tokyo in a couple of days.  Malakas could bring wind and heavy rain to the coastal portions of Honshu later this week.

Large Typhoon Lionrock Moves Closer to Japan

Large Typhoon Lionrock moved closer to Japan on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Lionrock was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 142.1°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Lionrock was moving toward the northeast at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (180 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Lionrock retains a large symmetrical circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center.  Microwave satellite images suggest that there could be two eyewalls.  The inner eyewall is weaker on the western side and the larger outer eyewall has fewer thunderstorms on the northwestern side.  Other spiral bands are rotating around outside the outer eyewall.  Thunderstorms near the core of the circulation are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass primarily to the east of the typhoon.

The environment around Typhoon Lionrock would be marginally favorable for intensification.  Lionrock is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) is near 28°C.  An upper level trough west of Lionrock is generating southwesterly winds which are affecting the upper level divergence on the western side of the typhoon.  However, the vertical wind shear is not too significant.  On the other hand, concentric eyewalls often produce weakening as the inner eye wall dissipates and the stronger winds occur in the outer eyewall.  So, Lionrock could maintain a steady intensity or weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.  After that time is will move over cooler SSTs and it could weaken more.

The upper level trough is steering Typhoon Lionrock toward the northeast and that general motion is expect to continue for another 24 hours.  After that time, the upper trough will turn Lionrock back toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Lionrock will make landfall on northeast Honshu north of Tokyo in about 36 hours.  It could cause some wind damage.  Heavy rainfall and flash floods will also pose serious risks since Lionrock will move over some of the same areas affected by Typhoon Mindulle.

Typhoon Lionrock Turns in the Direction of Japan

After meandering southeast of Okinawa for several days Typhoon Lionrock started moving northeast toward Japan on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Lionrock was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 133.0°E which put it about 920 miles (1485 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Lionrockk was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Typhoon Lionrock is very well organized.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional well formed spiral bands are rotating around outside the core of Lionrock.  Thunderstorms in the eyewall and spiral bands are generating upper level divergence which are pumping out mass in all directions.  The upper level divergence is inhibited a little on the far northern edge of the circulation by northerly winds impinging on Typhoon Lionrock.  Even so, there is enough upper level divergence to compensate for the strong inflow of mass near the surface and Typhoon Lionrock has been in a nearly steady state during recent hours.

Typhoon Lionrock is moving through an environment that should allow for it to maintain its intensity during the next severall days.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level high over China is generating northerly winds which are effecting the extreme northern edge of the outflow from Lionrock.  However, the vertical wind shear is not very strong and it should have a minimal effect on the intensity of the typhoon in the short term.  Eventually, Typhoon Lionrock will move over cooler SSTs and into a region where the upper level winds are stronger and it will start to weaken before it reaches Japan.

Typhoon Lionrock is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge and that ridge is beginning to steer it toward the northeast.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  Eventually Lionrock is forecast to turn more toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Lionrock could approach the eastern coast of Honshu in three or four days.  Lionrock could still be a typhoon at that time.

If Lionrock makes landfall in Honshu as a typhoon it will be strong enough to cause some wind damage.  In addition, Typhoon Lionrock could move over some of the same areas affected by Typhoon Mindulle.  Heavy rain caused by Lionrock could create the potential for additional flash flooding and mudslides.

Typhoon Mindulle Nearing Japan

Typhoon Mindulle moved steadily toward the coast of Japan on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mindulle was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 139.4°E which put it about 185 miles (305 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Mindulle was moving toward the north at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon is reasonably well organized.  A primary rainband wraps most of the way around the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  There is evidence of a partial eyewall north of the center.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are occurring in the northern half of the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the core of Mindulle are generating upper level divergence which is pumping away mass to the east of the typhoon.  However, there are fewer thunderstorms west of the center of circulation which may indicate the presence of dry air in that area.

Typhoon Mindulle is moving through an environment that is only marginal for further intensification.  It is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but Mindulle will move over cooler water when it approaches the coast of Japan.  An upper level trough located to the west of Japan is generating southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of Mindulle.  The moderate vertical wind shear is preventing upper level divergence to the west of the typhoon and the shear may also be partially responsible for the asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms.  It is also possible that Mindulle is pulling in some drier air located northwest of the typhoon.

The upper level trough is steering Mindulle toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Mindulle will reach the coast near Tokyo in 10-12 hours.  Heavy rain in some of the bands of thunderstorms north of the center could reach the coast at any time.  Since Mindulle is a typhoon, it is capable of causing minor wind damage.  A greater risk is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Tropical Storm Mindulle Forms Northwest of Guam

A smaller center of circulation consolidated within a much larger cyclonic gyre that extends from the Marianas north to Japan and west to China and the system has been designated Tropical Storm Mindulle.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 141.0°E which put it about 410 miles (655 km) south of Iwo To.  Mindule was moving toward the north-northwest at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Mindulle is still organizing.  A primary rainband is wrapping about three quarters of the way around the broad center of circulation.  There are few thunderstorms close to the core of tropical storm.  Scattered thunderstorms are forming in broken bands outside the primary rainband.  The thunderstorms in the primary rainband are generating some upper level divergence which is mainly pumping mass to the southwest of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Mindulle is in an environment that is favorable for slow intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level pattern near Mindulle is quite complex with a number of different features.  A narrow upper level ridge is just north of Mindulle and it is producing northeasterly winds that are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The northeasterly winds are contributing to the fact that most of the thunderstorms are west of the center of circulation and they are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear is inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Storm Mindulle is expected to extract enough energy from the ocean to intensify.  However, intensification will be slow while the core of the circulation organizes.

Tropical Storm Mindule is moving around the eastern portion of the large cyclonic gyre mentioned above.  That gyre is steering Mindulle toward the north-northwest and a general motion toward the north is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mindulle could pass near Iwo To in about 24 hours.  Mindulle could be near Tokyo, Japan in about three days.