Tag Archives: Florida Keys

Tropical Storm Eta Turns Back Toward Florida

Tropical Storm Eta tuned back toward Florida on Tuesday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.5°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of the Dry Tortugas. Eta was moving toward the north- northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida. The Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta exhibited more organization on Tuesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the the eastern and northern side of the the center of circulation. There were occasional indications that an eye could be forming at the center of Eta. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Eta. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northeastern half of Eta. Bands in the southwestern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta could strengthen back into a hurricane on Wednesday. The upper level trough will move closer to Eta on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. The shear could get strong enough to cause Eta to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the north-northeast during the next 24 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Eta will pass west of the Florida Keys on Wednesday. The center of Tropical Storm Eta could approach Tampa on Thursday morning. Eta could be near hurricane strength when it passes near Tampa. Southwesterly winds blowing around the east side of Tropical Storm Eta could push water into Tampa Bay. Eta could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters).

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Subtropical Storm Theta nade a transition to a strong tropical storm. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 35.5°W which put it about 770 miles (1235 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Eta Drops Heavy Rain on South Florida

Tropical Storm Eta dropped heavy rain on parts of South Florida on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Marathon, Florida. Eta was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta weakened when it moved across Cuba on Sunday morning. Drier air wrapping around the southern side of an upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea was pulled into the core of Tropical Storm Eta and the thunderstorms near the core weakened. Even though the inner core of Eta was weaker, the tropical storm still had a well developed low level circulation. Stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms and the lack of thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Storm Eta was also affecting the wind pattern. Low pressure at the center of Eta and a strong high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean generated a strong pressure gradient northeast of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (485 km) to the northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Several stations along the southeast coast of Florida were reporting winds to tropical storm force. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 mile (240 km) northwest and southeast of the center of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southwestern quadrant of Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. The upper level low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will produce easterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Monday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will slowly decrease. Tropical Storm Eta could move over the Loop Current when it moves west of the Florida Keys. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Loop Current is near 29°C. Eta is likely to strengthen to a hurricane when it moves over the Loop Current.

Counterclockwise rotation around the upper low over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the west during the next 12 hours. Eta will move more toward the southwest on Monday night. Eta could stall for a period on Tuesday. An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move toward the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will start to pull Eta toward the north later in the week. Eta could move toward the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Eta will move across the Lower Florida Keys during the next 12 hours. Eta will produce gusty winds over Keys on Monday. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1.3 meters). Bands revolving around the northern side of Tropical Storm Eta will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of South Florida. Urban flooding will occur in some locations and Flash Flood Watches are in effect for South Florida.

Tropical Storm Eta Strengthens, Hurricane Watch for Florida

Tropical Storm Eta strengthened a little more Saturday evening and A Hurricane Watch was issued for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) west-southwest of Camaguey, Cuba. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta continued to strengthen on Saturday evening. There were occasional infrared satellite images that suggested a small eye could be forming at the center of Eta. There was a ring of strong thunderstorms around the center and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The strongest rainbands were in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation around Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were blowing in the northern half of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the few hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Eta. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta is likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Saturday night. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches the Florida Keys.

The upper level trough will make a transition to a cutoff low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico which will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta toward the northeast on Saturday night . On its anticipated track Eta could move across Cuba west of Camaguey on Saturday night. Tropical Storm Eta will drop heavy rain when it moves across Cuba and flash floods could occur. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could be a hurricane at that time. Eta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level could rise up to six feet (2 meters). The strong winds could also cause widespread power outages in South Florida.

Eta Strengthens Back to Tropical Storm, Warnings Issued for Florida

Former Tropical Depression Eta strengthened back to a tropical storm on Saturday morning and Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 80.1°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) north of Grand Cayman Island. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Golden Beack to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Englewood, Florida and from JGolden Beach to the Brevard/Volusia County Line. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane and from Grand Cayman Island indicated that the center of former Tropical Depression Eta reformed in a cluster of thunderstorms near Grand Cayman. The reconnaissance plane was still sampling the circulation around Tropical Storm Eta but the available date suggested that it was much better organized. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the eastern and northern part of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Eta. Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease and Tropical Storm Eta was intensifying more quickly. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be less vertical wind shear under the ridge. Eta could intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Eta is likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Saturday night . The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches South Florida. An upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta on Sunday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. The wind shear caused by the upper low could eventually cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone.

An upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast on Saturday. On its anticipated track Eta could move across Cuba on Saturday night and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could be a hurricane at that time. Eta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level could rise up to six feet (2 meters).

Tropical Depression Eta Prompts Watches for South Florida, Keys and Northwest Bahamas

Expected intensification of Tropical Depression Eta prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for parts of South Florida, the Florida Keys and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) west-southwest of Gran Cayman Island. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of South Florida from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach. It included Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.

The structure of the circulation around Tropical Depression Eta exhibited a little more organization on satellite imagery on Friday evening. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Eta. There were also more thunderstorms in bands in the eastern half of the circulation. Bands in the western half of Eta contained more showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the depression. Removal of mass could allow the surface pressure to decrease on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be less vertical wind shear under the ridge and Eta is likely to strengthen back to a tropical storm on Saturday. A upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta on Sunday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. Eta is also likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Sunday. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches South Florida. The wind shear caused by the upper low could eventually cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone.

The upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast on Saturday. Eta could pass near the Cayman Islands on Saturday. Eta is likely to move across Cuba on Sunday morning and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level will rise several feet.

Potential Redevelopment of Eta Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Cayman Islands

Potential redevelopment of former Hurricane Eta prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 87.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west of La Ceiba, Honduras. Eta was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Cayman Islands.

The low level center of former Hurricane Eta appeared to move north-northwest across Honduras on Thursday. Mountains in Honduras disrupted the surface circulation around Tropical Depression Eta as the day went on and the center became less distinct. That created more uncertainty about the location and movement of the low level center. There was a cluster of thunderstorms in a band north of Honduras and it was possible that a new center could form near that cluster of storms. Thunderstorms were also dropping heavy rain over Belize in bands located northwest of the apparent low level center of circulation. There were additional reports of flash floods from Honduras and floods could also have occurred in parts of Belize.

Tropical Depression Eta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure during the next 12 to 24 hours. The high will steer Eta toward the north during that time. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eta will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during Thursday night. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will move toward Eta on Friday. The southern end of the trough will make a transition to a cutoff low during the weekend. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast during the weekend. Eta could pass near the Cayman Islands on Saturday. Eta is likely to move across Cuba on Sunday and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued for part of Cuba at any time. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Monday and it could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys and South Florida.

When Tropical Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be little vertical wind shear under the ridge and Eta is likely to strengthen back to a tropical storm on Friday. The cutoff low will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta during the weekend. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. The wind shear could also cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone, if the shear is stronger.

Tropical Storm Eta Drops Heavy Rain on Nicaragua and Honduras

Tropical Storm Eta dropped heavy rain on Nicaragua and Honduras on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 85.7°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Eta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The wind speeds in former Hurricane Eta decreased steadily on Wednesday as it move farther inland over northern Nicaragua. Eta weakened to a tropical storm, but the storm continued to drop heavy rain over parts of northern Nicaragua and Honduras. There were reports of flash floods in a number of locations. Thunderstorms in bands on the western and northern periphery of Tropical Storm Eta also dropped heavy rain over parts of Belize, Guatemala and Costa Rica. A strong rainband was also over the Caribbean Sea just east of Nicaragua.

Tropical Storm Eta will likely weaken to a tropical depression during Wednesday night. However, Eta will continue to drop locally heavy rain and more flash floods are likely to occur. Tropical Storm Eta will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure on Thursday. The high will steer Eta toward the west-northwest on Thursday. On its anticipated track Eta will move across Honduras to near the coast of Belize.

A upper level trough east of the Rocky Mountains is forecast to move southeast toward the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. The southern end of the end of the trough will make a transition into a cutoff low. Counterclockwise circulation around the cutoff low will pull Eta toward the northeast on Friday. When Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Eta could strengthen back into a tropical storm on Friday night. It is possible that Eta could develop the structure of a subtropical storm if the cutoff low causes enough wind shear to keep it from becoming a tropical storm again.

The counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the north during the weekend. Eta is likely to move across Cuba and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Sunday and it could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys and South Florida.

Major Hurricane Eta Makes Landfall in Nicaragua

Major Hurricane Eta made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 83.5°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras.

Hurricane Eta moved very slowly onto the coast of Nicaragua just to south of Puerto Cabezas on Tuesday afternoon. Concentric eyewalls developed around the center of Eta before it made landfall. The start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the intensity of Hurricane Eta to remain relatively steady as it approached the coast of Nicaragua. An environment favorable for strong hurricanes allowed Eta to continue to be a major hurricane at the time of landfall.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Eta at the time it made landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Eta was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7.

Hurricane Eta was capable of causing significant wind damage. over northeastern Nicaragua. The northern eyewall which contained the strongest winds passed over Puerto Cabezas. Eta could also cause a storm surge of 15 to 18 feet (5 to 6 meters) along the coast near Puerto Cabezas. Hurricane Eta will weaken as it moves slowly inland over northern Nicaragua and the wind speeds will decrease quickly. Eta will drop very heavy rain over northern Nicaragua and Honduras. Some locations could receive 20 to 30 inches (50 to 75 cm). The heavy rain could cause catastrophic flash floods in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Eta will move more toward the northwest on Wednesday and the circulation could emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. There is a chance that Eta could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the circulation moves back over water. Eta could bring gusty winds and rain to the Florida Keys by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Paulette Causes Hurricane Warning for Bermuda

A likely intensification of Tropical Storm Paulette caused a Hurricane Warning to be issued for Bermuda on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 57.2°W which put it about 565 miles (905 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Paulette was on the verge of strengthening into a hurricane on Saturday morning.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a small circular eye was forming at the center of Paulette.  A ring of strong thunderstorms was developing around the eye.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Paulette.  The stronger thunderstorms were in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of Paulette consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the northern side of Tropical Storm Paulette.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Paulette will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move into an area that is northeast of an upper low north of Puerto Rico and west of an upper level ridge that is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The upper low will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Paulette.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will slow the rate of intensification.  In spite of the wind shear Paulette is likely to strengthen into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic.  The high will steer Paulette toward the northwest during the next 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Paulette will approach Bermuda on Sunday night.  Paulette will almost certainly be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Nineteen was strengthening near Southwest Florida and Rene weakened to a tropical depression west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 81.5°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) south-southeast of Naples, Florida.  The depression was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coasst from Ochlockonee River to the Okaloosa/Walton  County Line in Florida.

Tropical Depression Nineteen was dropping heavy rain over the Florida Keys on Saturday morning.  The depression is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.  A Hurricane Watch is likely to be issued for the Northern Gulf Coast later today.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 44.4°W which put it about 1415 miles (2275 km) west-northwest of teh Cabo Verde Islands.  Rene was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  Th maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Laura Prompts Hurricane Watch for Northwest Gulf Coast

The potential threat from Tropical Storm Laura prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of the Isle of Youth, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Bolivar, Texas to Morgan CIty, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Carla, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The appearance of Tropical Storm Laura did not change much on Monday afternoon.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center on the eastern side of Laura.  Winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Laura will move near Cuba for another 12 to 18 hours.  So, the flow of air across Cuba is likely to continue to disrupt the northern half of the circulation during the time period.  When Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday , it will move into an environment favorable for intensification.  Tropical Storm Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into an area where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Laura will intensify into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico and it could strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Laura will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Laura toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24hours.  Laura will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Laura could make landfall on the northwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.  Laura could be a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Elsewhere,  the center of Tropical Storm Marco was very close to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 88.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) east-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  All coastal watches and warnings for Tropical Storm Marco have been discontinued.