A tropical depression formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Comoros on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of a tropical depression was located at latitude 7.7°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) northeast of the Comoros. The tropical depression was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.
A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Comoros exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as a tropical depression. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression. Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.
The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical depression is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.
The tropical depression will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical depression will move over Comoros on Wednesday. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Comoros. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. The tropical depression could approach the coast of Africa near southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique later this week.