Tag Archives: La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 69.5°E which put it about 420 miles (695 km) east of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened from a tropical storm back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday morning. Microwave satellite images showed that a new pinhole eye had formed at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The tiny eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the tiny core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. The circulation around Batisirai continued to be very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be just north of Rodrigues in less than 48 hours. If the core of Batsirai stays north of Rodrigues, it could still bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Mauritius in three and a half days. Batsirai could also eventually affect La Reunion and Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Moves West Across South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved westward across the South Indian Ocean on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 73.1°E which put it about 655 miles (1060 km) east of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened almost as fast during the past 24 hours as it had intensified previously. The tiny pinhole eye collapsed and the distribution of thunderstorms became asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Batsirai’s circulation. Bands in the northeastern part of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Batsirai.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be near Rodrigues within 72 hours. Batsirai could approach Mauritius in five days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it affects Rodrigues and Mauritius. Batsirai could also eventually affect La Reunion and Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 1090 miles (1760 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after it developed over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday night. A tiny pinhole eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) quickly formed at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The strongest winds were occurring about 6 miles (10 km) from the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Batsirai to weaken. Since the circulation around Batsirai is very small, if the tropical cyclone moves into a less favorable environment, it could weaken rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Rodrigues, Mauritius, La Reunion and eventually Madagascar next week. Batsirai could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches those places.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Expected to Move Westward

Tropical Cyclone Habana is expected to move westward during the upcoming week. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1150 miles (1850 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to be the equivalent of a major hurricane. A small circular eye reappeared at the center of Habana on infrared satellite images on Sunday afternoon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next several days. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Since the core of Habana is so small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. In that case an eyewall replacement cycle would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Habana.

A high pressure system located south of Tropical Cyclone Habana will strengthen during the next few days. That high pressure system will become the dominant weather system steering Habana. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Tropical Cyclone Habana back toward the west. On its anticipated track Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the upcoming week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iman was speeding away from La Reunion on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 58.5°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Iman Brings Rain to La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Iman brought rain to La Reunion and Mauritius on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southwest of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened on Saturday after it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar and Meteo France la Reunion designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Iman. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Iman was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Iman. Bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone consisted of primarily of showers and thunderstorms. Storms east of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Iman brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion and Mauritius. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in areas of steeper terrain.

An upper level trough south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Iman toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Iman will move quickly away to the southeast of La Reunion and Mauritius. Weather conditions in those locations will improve on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Iman will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Iman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Iman. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, powerful Tropical Cyclone Habana maintained its intensity south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 79.2°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.1.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise Develops Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eloise developed northeast of Mauritius on Sunday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eloise was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eloise was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system northeast of Mauritius strengthened on Sunday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Eloise. The distribution of thunderstorms around Eloise was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Eloise generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Eloise will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern portion of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eloise could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours despite the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Eloise will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Eloise toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Eloise could approach northern Madagascar in about three days.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joshua moved far to the southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 89.8°E which put it about 1405 miles (2265 km) southeast of Digeo Garcia. Joshua was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Weak Danilo Passes North of Rodrigues

Weak Tropical Cyclone Danilo passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo weakened into the equivalent of a tropical depression while it passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. Dry air continued to limit the development of thunderstorms in the circulation around Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of a small upper level ridge east of Madagascar. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though the environment is somewhat favorable for intensification, the drier air around Danilo is likely to continue to inhibit strengthening of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass near pass near Mauritius in about 20 hours. Danilo could be near La Reunion in a day or so. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Danilo moved northeast of Rodrigues on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo continued to be affected by drier. Thunderstorms became more numerous for a time on Thursday and then those storms weakened during Thursday night. A few new thunderstorms began to develop on Friday morning. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) in the southern side of Danilo. Winds in the northern half of the tropical cyclone were weaker than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The drier air around Danilo will continue to inhibit intensification of the tropical cyclone. If the recent increase in thunderstorms persists, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could intensify a little during the next 24 hours. If the drier air causes those thunderstorms to dissipate, then Danilo could weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours. Since the most of the thunderstorms and the strongest winds are in the southern half of the circulation, Danilo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in less than 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Dailo weakened south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 74.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Northerly winds carried dry air from Asia across the Indian Ocean and some of the dry air was pulled into the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo. The dry air mixed with the moister air in the eyewall and rainbands, which caused the thunderstorms in those regions to weaken. When the thunderstorms weakened, downdrafts that transported stronger winds to the surface also weakened. The eye and eyewall at the center of circulation dissipated. Bands in the northern half of Danilo consisted of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the flow of drier air diminishes, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could strengthen again. However, if the flow of drier air remains strong, then intensification is unlikely. Slight intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be north of Rodrigues in 60 hours. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about four days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 76.4°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified south of Diego Garcia on Monday night. After the circulation around Danilo fully absorbed the circulation of a tropical depression, the tropical cyclone began intensify again. An eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was evident on microwave satellite images. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danilo. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Danilo is very likely to intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in four days. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend.