A tropical cyclone could potentially develop over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form near the surface over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. The low pressure system will form in an environment that will be favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The low pressure system will form over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will form under an upper level ridge that will be over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The low pressure system could gradually organize into a tropical cyclone. The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 30% that a tropical cyclone forms over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next seven days.