Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone Ella

Weaker Tropical Cyclone Ella Passing North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Ella weakened on Saturday as passed north of Fiji.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ella was located at latitude 12.9°S and longitude 178.9°E which put it about 365 miles (585 km) north-northeast of Nadi, Fiji.  Ella was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ella moved underneath an area of stronger upper level westerly winds on Saturday.  Stronger vertical wind shear pushed the upper part of the circulation east of the lower level circulation.  The center of the lower level circulation was completely exposed by late Saturday.  It consisted of a tight swirl of low clouds and showers.  Some thunderstorms were occurring in bands east of the low level center.

The small size of Tropical Cyclone Ella made it very vulnerable to increased vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ella is forecast to continue to move under the upper level westerly winds.  Shear is likely to weaken Ella further even though it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.

A subtropical ridge south of Ella is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  Tropical Cyclone Ella is forecast to move through Tuvalu, but it will pass north of Fiji.

Tropical Cyclone Ella Strengthens To Equivalent of a Hurricane Near Wallis & Futuna

Tropical Cyclone Ella strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved near Wallis and Futuna on Thursday.  Ella brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ella was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 178.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north of Wallis and Futuna.  Ella was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ella has a very small circulation, but that circulation is well organized.  There is a very tight inner core.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds a tiny pinhole eye.  The strongest winds are occurring in the tight eyewall.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are forming in the eastern half of the circulation.  There are bands of showers in the western half of the circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out only about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Ella is moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Ella is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ella could continue to intensify as long as it is in an area where the upper level winds are weak.  However, there are much strong upper level westerly winds flowing just to the south of the tropical cyclone.  If Tropical Cyclone Ella moves into an area where the upper level winds are strong, vertical wind shear could weaken it very quickly because of Ella’s small size.

A subtropical ridge south of Ella is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west and a general westerly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated path Tropical Cyclone Ella will move away from Wallis and Futuna.  Ella could move near the northeastern portion of Fiji in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ella Strengthens As It Nears Wallis and Futuna

Tropical Cyclone Ella strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to Wallis and Futuna.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ella was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 177.0°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Wallis and Futuna.  Ella was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Ella exhibited better organization on Wednesday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was evident on some microwave satellite images.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms in the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  The size of the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Ella is small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 100 miles (160 km) fro the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ella will move through an area that will be favorable for intensification.  Ella will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ella could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday.  However, because the size of the circulation is small, any future increase in the vertical wind shear could quickly weaken Tropical Cyclone Ella.

Ella is moving around the northern side of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west.  Ella is currently moving north of a weaker section of the ridge and the steering winds are weaker.  So, Ella is moving more slowly.  The ridge is expected to steer Tropical Cyclone Ella in a general westerly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ella could pass near Wallis and Futuna in 12 to 18 hours.  It could be near hurricane/typhoon strength at that time.  Ella could approach the northeastern part of Fiji in two or three days.