There are two areas to watch for the potential development of a tropical cyclone during the next week.  One location to watch for potential development is the area around the western Caribbean Sea, Yucatan peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico.  The other area to watch is the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

Numerical models have been suggesting possible development of an area of low pressure somewhere over the western Caribbean Sea, Yucatan peninsula or southern Gulf of Mexico.  The scenario suggested by the models includes a surge of southerly winds across Central America, which contributes to the spinning up of an area of low pressure.  There are currently strong westerly winds in the upper levels over this area.  The strong vertical wind shear will prevent development of a tropical cyclone in the short term.  An upper level ridge could develop over the area in several days.  If that happens, the wind shear would decrease.  Some runs of the numerical models create a broad, weak area of low pressure, which would primarily be a rain threat for the Yucatan peninsula and nearby regions.  Other models develop a low pressure system that is a little stronger, although those lows also weaken when they move over the Yucatan.  The models generally move the low pressure system northwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  However, there are fairly significant deviations in how far north the low moves once it is in the Gulf.  As of 8:00 p.m. EDT on June 14 the National Hurricane Center was indicating that there was a 30% probability of the development of a tropical cyclone in this area during the next five days.

Some numerical models have also been suggesting potential development of a tropical cyclone near latitude 10°N over the tropical Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  A tropical wave is interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and there has been a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms.  The disturbance is moving slowly toward the west.  There is some vertical wind shear in this region, but the stronger upper level winds are north of the disturbance.  The disturbance is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It would be unusual to see a tropical cyclone develop over the tropical Atlantic in June, but it has happened at least three times in the past.  As of 8:00 p.m. EDT on June 14 the National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 20% probability of the development of a tropical cyclone in this region during the next five days.