A stronger Tropical Storm Carlotta moved near Acapulco, Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 99.9°W which put it 20 miles (35 km) south of Acapulco. Carlotta was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana.
The center of Tropical Storm Carlotta remained over water on Saturday and the circulation strengthened. A small eye formed at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation. Storms in the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm.
The future intensity of Tropical Storm Carlotta will depend on whether or not the center remains over water. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water south of Mexico is near 30°C. Carlotta will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak. If the center of Carlotta remains over water, then it could intensify more on Sunday. However, if the center moves inland, then Tropical Storm Carlotta will weaken quickly when the circulation is disrupted by the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains.
Tropical Storm Carlotta moved near the western end of a ridge over Mexico. The ridge steered Carlotta slowly toward the northwest on Saturday and that general motion is forecast to continue on Sunday. On its forecast track the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta will move almost parallel to the coast of Mexico west of Acapulco. A small deviation to the left of the anticipated track will keep the center over water. A small deviation to the right of the anticipated track will bring Tropical Storm Carlotta inland. Carlotta will cause gusty winds near the coast. Heavy rain will fall north of the center and over the south slopes of the Sierra Madre del Sur Mountains. Flash floods are likely because of the slow movement of Tropical Storm Carlotta.