Category Archives: Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic TCs

Subtropical Storm Ana Forms Northeast of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Ana formed northeast of Bermuda on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of a Subtropical Storm Ana was located at latitude 34.2°N and longitude 64.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) northeast of Bermuda. Ana was moving toward the west-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system northeast of Bermuda on Saturday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Subtropical Storm Ana. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands southwest and northeast of the center of Ana. Bands in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the northern half of Subtropical Storm Ana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) to the north of the center of circulation. Winds in the southern half of Ana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Subtropical Storm Ana will be in an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C. It will be near the center of an upper level low. The winds are weak near the center of the low and there will be little vertical wind shear. Some drier air will wrap around parts of the circulation and the drier air will inhibit the development of thunderstorms. Subtropical Storm Ana could get a little stronger on Saturday. An upper level trough near the East Coast of the U.S. will move toward Ana. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Sunday. More vertical wind shear will cause Ana to start to weaken.

Subtropical Storm Ana is forecast to remain relatively stationary on Saturday while it is near the center of the upper level low. The upper level trough near the East Coast will steer Ana toward the northeast on Sunday. On its anticipated track the center of Subtropical Storm Ana is forecast to remain northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Bermuda on Thursday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of a nontropical low pressure system designated as Invest 90L was located at latitude 34.9°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 635 miles (1010 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. Invest 90L was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A non-tropical low pressure system east-northeast of Bermuda prompted the Bermuda Weather Service to issue a Tropical Storm Watch. The low pressure system exhibited a non-tropical structure on Thursday night. There were bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the center of the low pressure system. However, there were not any thunderstorms near the center of the low. The strongest winds were occurring in the outer part of the circulation around the low. The low pressure system may have also had a cold core in the upper levels.

The surface portion of the low pressure system was rotating counterclockwise around an upper level low. The upper level low was forecast to steer the surface low toward the west on Friday. If the surface low moves westward, it will move over warmer Sea Surface Temperatures. The low pressure system could extract more energy from the Atlantic Ocean and thunderstorms could form near the center of circulation. The structure of the low pressure system could make a transition to a subtropical or a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center indicated that the probability was 80% that a subtropical or a tropical storm could form during the next 48 hours.

New Normals for Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that new normals have been computed for the Atlantic Hurricane season. CPC will now use normals based on the averages for the thirty year period from 1991-2020. The new normal number of named storms for the Atlantic basin is 14. The new normal for hurricanes is 7 and the normal for major hurricanes is 3.

Climatologists routinely calculate new normals based on the most recent 30 year period at the end of each decade. The previous normals for the Atlantic basin were based on the period from 1981 to 2010. The previous normal for the number of named storms was 12. The previous normal for the number of hurricanes was 6 and the previous normal for the number of major hurricanes was 3. The increases in the number of named storms and hurricanes reflect a more active period that began in 1995.

Hurricane Iota Drops Heavy Rain over Nicaragua and Honduras

Hurricane Iota was dropping heavy rain over Nicaragua and Honduras on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east of Tegucigapla, Honduras. Iota was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bluefields, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

Hurricane Iota continued to move steadily inland over Nicaragua on Tuesday morning. The center of Iota was just to the east of the border between Nicaragua and Honduras. Hurricane Iota was dropping heavy rain over much of Nicaragua and Honduras. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the center of Iota. Those rainbands were dropping rain fast enough to cause flash floods over many of the same places that were flooded by Hurricane Eta.

Hurricane Iota will continue to move westward during the next 24 to 36 hours. Iota will weaken to a tropical storm when its center moves over Honduras during the next few hours. Iota will likely be a tropical depression when the center reaches El Salvador on Tuesday night. Even though Hurricane Iota will weaken steadily, it will continue to drop heavy rain over Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Catastrophic flash floods could occur in that region.

Dangerous Hurricane Iota Hits Nicaragua

Dangerous Hurricane Iota hit Nicaragua with powerful winds and heavy rain on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 83.4°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Iota was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Patuca, Honduras. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for San Andres and Providencia Island.

Hurricane Iota was a powerful hurricane when it made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua just to the south of Puerto Cabezas. Iota was at Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center, The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Iota was 33.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.6. Iota was capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Iota made landfall on the same portion of the coast of Nicaragua devastated by Hurricane Eta two weeks ago. Iota will compound the damage caused by Eta. Strong winds will cause additional damage and they will destroy temporary shelters erected after Hurricane Eta. The winds blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6 meters) south of Puerto Cabezas.

Hurricane Iota will continue to move toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Iota will move across northern Nicaragua, southern Honduras and El Salvador. The winds around Hurricane Iota will weaken steadily as it moves inland. Iota will drop heavy rain over Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. The heavy rain will cause flash floods and some floods will occur in the same locations flooded by Hurricane Eta.

Hurricane Iota Rapidly Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Iota rapidly intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 82.0°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Iota was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 917 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Patuca, Honduras and for Providencia Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for San Andres. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for San Andres.

Hurricane Iota intensified very rapidly on Sunday night and it reached Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday morning. A reconnaissance aircraft found a circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) at the center of Iota. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Iota. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly which produced the very rapid intensification.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Iota. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Iota was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.9. Hurricane Iota was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Hurricane Iota will move through an capable of supporting a very intense hurricane on Monday. Iota will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could begin. An eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Iota to start to weaken, but Iota could still be at Category 5 when it makes landfall on the northern coast of Nicaragua.

Hurricane Iota will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Iota toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Iota could approach the coast a little to the south of the border between Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday night. Hurricane Iota will be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast and it could be at Category 5. Nicaragua and Honduras are still trying to cope with floods and other damage caused by Hurricane Eta. Another major hurricane could have catastrophic consequences for that region.

Hurricane Iota Rapidly Intensifies East of Nicaragua

Hurricane Iota rapidly intensified east of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Hurricane Iota was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 77.8°W which put it about 380 miles (615 km) east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Iota was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Patuca, Honduras and for Providencia Island. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for San Andres. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for San Andres.

Hurricane Iota was intensifying rapidly on Sunday morning. A small eye formed at the center of Iota. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Iota. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease quickly, which contributed to the rapid intensification. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center.

Hurricane Iota will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Iota will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Iota is likely to continue to intensify rapidly. Iota could strengthen into a major hurricane within 24 hours and it could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Iota will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Iota toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Iota could approach the coast near the border between Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday night. Hurricane Iota is likely be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast. Nicaragua and Honduras are still trying to cope with floods and other damage caused by Hurricane Eta a few days ago. Another major hurricane could have catastrophic consequences for that region.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Theta weakened to a tropical depression southwest of Madeira. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Theta was located at latitude 31.8°N and longitude 18.3°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southwest of Madeira. Theta was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Iota Strengthens, Hurricane Watches for Nicaragua and Honduras

Tropical Storm Iota strengthened on Saturday and Hurricane Watches were issued for the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 76.4°W which put it about 485 miles (780 km) east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Iota was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Patuca, Honduras and for Providencia Island. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for San Andres and Providencia Island. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found on Saturday afternoon that Tropical Storm Iota had strengthened. The maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure had decreased to 1002 mb. The circulation around Tropical Storm Iota was still organizing. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Iota. Bands in the western side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern half of Iota. Most of the winds on the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Iota will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Iota will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea has been producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Iota. The upper level trough will move westward away from Tropical Storm Iota and the wind shear will decrease on Sunday. Iota is likely to strengthen more rapidly after an inner core is formed. Tropical Storm Iota could rapidly intensify into a hurricane on Sunday and it could strengthen to a major hurricane on Monday.

Tropical Storm Iota will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Iota toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Iota could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Monday. It will likely be a hurricane at that time and it could be a major hurricane. Nicaragua and Honduras are still trying to cope with floods and other damage caused by Hurricane Eta a few days ago. Another hurricane could have catastrophic consequences for that region.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta moved toward Madeira. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 31.6°N and longitude 20.2°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) west-southwest of Madeira. Theta was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

TD 31 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Iota

Former Tropical Depression Thirtyone strengthened to Tropical Storm Iota on Friday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 73.8°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Iota was moving toward the west-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The low level circulation around former Tropical Depression Thirtyone appeared to reform a little farther to the southeast near a band of showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. Based on data from satellites the National Hurricane Center upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Iota. The circulation around Iota was still organizing. A band of thunderstorms wrapped about three quarters of the way around the center of circulation on the southern, eastern and northern sides of the center. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the Tropical Storm Iota. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the eastern side of Iota. The winds on the western side of Iota were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Iota will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the weekend. Iota will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Iota during the next 12 hours. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Iota from becoming more organized. The upper level trough will move westward away from the depression and the wind shear will decrease during the weekend. Tropical Storm Iota is likely to strengthen more rapidly after an inner core is formed. Iota could rapidly intensify into a hurricane on Saturday and it could strengthen to a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Iota will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Iota toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Iota could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. It will likely be a hurricane at that time and it could be a major hurricane. Nicaragua and Honduras are still trying to cope with floods and other damage caused by Hurricane Eta a few days ago. Another hurricane could have catastrophic consequences for that region.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta Passed south of the Azores. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 31.9°N and longitude 22.6°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) south-southeast of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Depression 31 Forms over Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Thirtyone formed over the Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Thirtyone was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 74.3°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south-southeast of Kingtson, Jamaica. The depression was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Caribbean Sea exhibited much better organization on visible satellite imagery on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Thirtyone. A band of thunderstorms wrapped about three quarters of the way around the center of circulation on the southern, eastern and northern sides of the center. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the north and east of the depression.

Tropical Depression Thirtyone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the weekend. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of the depression during the next 12 hours. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Depression Thirtyone from strengthening into a tropical storm. The upper level trough will move westward away from the depression and the wind shear will decrease during the weekend. Tropical Depression Thirtyone is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 12 hours. It could rapidly intensify into a hurricane on Saturday and it could strengthen to a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical Depression Thirtyone will move south of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track it could approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. It will likely be a hurricane at that time and it could be a major hurricane. Nicaragua and Honduras are still trying to cope with floods and other damage caused by Hurricane Eta a few days ago. Another hurricane could have catastrophic consequences for that region.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta Passed south of the Azores and Tropical Storm Eta completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 23.8°W which put it about 470 miles (760 km) south-southeast of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.