Hurricane Odile is bringing strong winds and heavy rain to portions of Baja California as it moves up the peninsula. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 111.3°W which put it about 90 miles south of Loreto, Mexico. Odile was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 955 mb. When the center of Odile moved over the southern tip of Baja California during the night, it tied Hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Baja California Sur in the satellite era.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Santa Rosalia. A Hurriane Watch is in effect from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Santa Rosalia northward to Bahia de Los Angeles, from Punta Eugenia northward to San Jose de Las Palomas, and from Altata to Bahia Kino. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to Cabo San Quintin, from Bahia de Los Angeles to San Felipe and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.
Odile is expected to continue moving over Baja California in the short term. Interaction with the mountains in Baja California sometimes causes the upper parts of the circulations around tropical cyclones to be decoupled from the lower level rotation. This makes track forecasts challenging because the upper and lower portions of the storms can go in different directions. Odile or at least the upper and middle portions of the circulation could eventually turn more toward the north or north-northeast and some portion of Odile could spend a period of time over the Gulf of California. It is possible that the low level circulation gets left behind and meanders along the west coast of Baja, California.
The mountains in Baja California should continue to weaken the circulation as long as the center remains over land. If the circulation maintains a coherent vertical structure and moves over the Gulf of California, some re-intensification is possible. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of California are very warm. Increased wind shear and land interaction will ultimately weaken Odile as it moves farther north.
The more northward track of Odile increases the potential for it to pull moist air into portions of the southwestern U.S. and some areas could see significant rainfall later this week.
The center of Major Hurricane Odile is rapidly approaching the southern tip of Baja California. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 109.6°W which put it about 30 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Odile was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 930 mb.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Loreto. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos northward to Punta Eugenia. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the portion of the coast from Loreto northward to Bahia San Juan Batista and from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia northward to San Jose de Las Palomas and from Altata to Bahia Kino.
Odile is moving more rapidly tonight and its current motion should bring the center very near the southern tip of Baja California during the next several hours. It looks like Odile will move very close to the west coast of the Baja peninsula. It could move along the coast or just offshore. In either case Odile will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of southern Baja California.
Odile went through an eyewall replacement cycle today. A larger outer eye surrounded the smaller inner eye, which eventually dissipated. The dissipation of the inner eye was accompanied by a minor decrease in the wind speed. However, the larger outer eye also had an effect of increasing the radius of strong winds and the circulation around Odile is larger than it was before.
Hurricane Odile is intensifying rapidly and it is very close to reaching Major Hurricane status. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 165 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 410 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Odile is moving more quickly now and it was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 110 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.
As the upper level wind shear decreased over Odile, it entered a period of rapid intensification. Odile is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and it is likely to reach Major Hurricane status on Sunday. The size of the circulation around Odile has also increased and hurricane force winds extend outward an average of 35 miles from the center.
Odile has begun to move more quickly and it has been moving more northward than northwestward. This motion has brought it closer to the coast and it has also caused the model guidance to shift the forecast track closer to the southern tip of Baja California. The change in the predicted track of Odile prompted the government of Mexico to issue new watches and warnings.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to La Paz. Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Puerto San Andresito and from La Paz northward to Loreto. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Loreto. The Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portion of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos and from Loreto to Mulege.
Tropical Storm Odile has intensified into a hurricane as it moves slowly toward the northwest off the west coast of Mexico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 106.0°W which put it about 200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 505 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Odile was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.
The upper level high over northern Mexico that was generating northeasterly winds over Odile has shifted eastward. As a result, the upper level wind shear has decreased and Odile is intensifying. Odile will be over warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) during the next several days and it should continue to intensify. A period of more rapid intensification is possible.
The winds in the middle level steering Odile should keep pushing it in a northwesterly direction. Much of the computer guidance suggests that Odile will pass south of the tip of Baja California and then move west of Baja. It could take a path similar to the track taken by Hurricane Norbert.
The government of Mexico issued a new Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Baja California that extends from La Paz to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.
If Odile moves west of Baja California, southerly winds in the eastern half of the circulation could transport significant water vapor over the southwestern U.S. In addition, a strong flow of moist air is occurring over northeastern Mexico associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave moving inland in that area. The combination of these two flows of moist air could create a potential for locally heavy rains over parts of the southwestern U.S. next week.
At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 126.6°E which put it about 360 miles east of Manila, Phillipines. Kalmaegi was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 m.p.h.
Kalmaegi is expected to begin to affect the northern Philippines during the next 24 hours. Further intensification is possible and Kalmaegi could also bring locally heavy rainfall. The west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue and Kalmaegi could head in the general direction of Hong Kong during the next several days.
A small surface low pressure system formed just north of the Bahamas on Thursday and the National Hurricane Center has designated this system Invest 92L. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the low was centered at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 79.1°W which put it about 70 miles east-northeast of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. The low was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.
An east-west upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper low east of the Carolinas were combining to produce strong northerly winds over the surface low. Those winds were creating considerable wind shear and were blowing much of the thunderstorm activity to the south of the low. The shear is likely to continue for the next day or two and it is likely to inhibit significant intensification of the low. The northerly winds were diverging on the south side of the low and the upper level divergence did cause the surface pressure to decrease by several millibars on Thursday.
The low is likely to move across south Florida during the weekend and it could enhance the rainfall in that area. If the surface low remains intact and moves out over the Gulf of Mexico, it could move into an area where the wind shear is less. Some models are suggesting that the low could become a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, but that is contingent on its circulation retaining its integrity and the shear decreasing. If a tropical cyclone does form, it could move toward the western or northwestern Gulf Coast during the early part of next week.
This low bears watching because of its proximity to the U.S., but it’s future is highly uncertain. The wind shear could cause the system to dissipate as it crosses over Florida. On the other hand, the low could move just far enough south to get away from the strongest upper level winds and then the low could emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days. There is time to watch the evolution of this system.
A core region of convection developed in the center of a large low pressure system associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave and the system was classified as Tropical Storm Edouard. At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Edouard was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 39.4°W which put it about 1020 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and about 2700 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida. Edouard was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.
Edouard is likely to move in a general west-northwest to northwest track during the next several days before taking a more northward turn early next week. This track would keep Edouard out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean during the next five days where it will pose no immediate threat to any land areas.
The Sea Surface Temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean are several degrees above normal and Edouard should be able to extract plenty of energy from the ocean. As long as the upper level winds are not too strong Edouard should be able to intensify and it is likely to become a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Odile formed west of Mexico on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Odile was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 103.5°W which put it about 195 miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas and about 245 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Odile was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.
An upper level high pressure system over northern Mexico is generating northeasterly winds over Odile, which is creating moderate wind shear over the storm. The shear is likely to continue in the short-term and then it will lessen. Shear will likely limit the rate at which Odile intensifies during the next 12-24 hours. However, if the shear lessens in a day or so, then Odile will be in an environment favorable for intensification with warm Sea Surface Temperatures and a period or more rapid intensification is possible. Odile has a good chance of becoming a hurricane and there is a possibility that it could reach Major Hurricane intensity.
The mid level winds that would steer Odile are relatively light and so it is likely to move slowly in a general northwest or west-northwest direction. With weak steering flow erratic motion may occur and the center could even be quasi-stationary at times. An east-west mid-level ridge of high pressure over the Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will shift westward and eventually provide a stronger west-northwest or northwest steering flow for Odile. As a result Odile will likely move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico toward the southern tip of Baja California. Recent indications suggest that the center will move west of Baja California like Hurricane Norbert did.
Although it looks less likely that the center of Odile will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico, uncertainty exists about the ultimate size of the wind field when Odile intensifies. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas northward to Manzanillo as a precaution in case the wind field expands to the point where tropical storm force winds reach the coast.
Despite being close to land and near much cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) Hurricane Norbert intensified rapidly during the overnight hours and it has maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h. This makes Norbert a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and it is considered to be a Major Hurricane. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Norbert was located at latitude 24.8°N and longitude 113.8°W which put it about 95 miles west of Cabo San Lazaro and about 220 miles south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Norbert was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. The minimum surface pressure was estimated to be 957 mb.
The government of Mexico has adjusted the warnings issued for Norbert. The Hurricane Warning has been discontinued. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia and from San Evaristo to Loreto.
Norbert is expected to continue to move toward the northwest this weekend. It will soon move over much cooler SSTs. Once Norbert moves into that environment it will encounter much cooler, more stable air which will begin to lessen the convection. As Norbert extracts less energy from the ocean and convection transports less energy upward, the circulation will begin to spin down.
The remnants of Norbert’s circulation could turn northeast and cross northern Baja California into the southwestern U.S. next week. It is also possible that as the circulation around Norbert weakens, the upper and lower portions could decouple. The upper and middle portion of the circulation could move over the southwestern U.S. and enhance the probability for rainfall there, while the lower level circulation remains nearly stationary and dissipates west of Baja California.
Hurricane Norbert has intensified in recent hours and the maximum sustained wind speed is now 110 m.p.h. which puts the hurricane at the high end of Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The slow movement of Norbert has allowed the core of the hurricane to remain over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near 29°C. The input of energy from the ocean has fueled convection around the eye. The slow motion west of Baja California may have also allowed the inner core to tighten up and the mountains of Baja may have also reduced the vertical shear. All of these factors have produced a more intense hurricane.
The center of Norbert is about 50 miles southwest of Cabo San Lazaro. The hurricane force winds are still offshore, but some portions of the coast may be experiencing tropical storm force winds. It is also possible that heavy rain may be falling in areas where the wind direction is enhancing the upslope motion.
Norbert should move over cooler SSTs during the weekend. Less energy and more stable atmospheric conditions will result in decreased convection and the circulation around Norbert should start to spin down.