A tropical cyclone organized north of La Reunion and east of Madagascar over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of the tropical cyclone was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 56.1°E, which put it about 435 miles (700 km) north of La Reunion.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of showers and thunderstorms persisted north of La Reunion for much of the past week.  Curved bands of showers and thunderstorms began to develop on Friday and the circulation took on more of a circular shape.  Thunderstorms near the center of the circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping out mass and the surface pressure started to decrease.  There is a distinct center in the low level circulation and the tropical cyclone would be the equivalent of a tropical depression if it were over the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans.

The environment surrounding the tropical cyclone is favorable for further intensification.  The tropical cyclone is over water where the Sea Surface temperature is around 28.5°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.  The upper level winds over the tropical cyclone are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  The absence of vertical wind shear is allowing the upper level divergence to pump out mass in all directions.  The tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify quickly if the inner core continues to develop.

The winds at the steering level are weak, which is why the system did not move much during the past few days.  Weak northerly winds could push the tropical cyclone slowly toward the south toward Mauritius and La Reunion.  The tropical cyclone could be near those islands in about three or four days.