Strong Typhoon Phanfone has reached the western edge of a subtropical high pressure system and it is making the expected turn toward the north.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Phanfone was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 134.0°E which put it about 870 miles south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Phanfone was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h.

Phanfone went through an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday in which the small inner eye dissipated and a much larger eye became apparent on satellite imagery.  The eyewall replacement cycle kept the intensity of Phanfone relatively constant.  Now that the inner eye is gone, the outer eye is likely to contract.  Phanfone remains over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it is a favorable atmospheric environment.  So, some further intensification is possible during the next 24 hours.  In 24 to 36 hours Phanfone will be far enough north to begin to be influenced by upper level westerly winds.  The stronger upper level winds will increase wind shear over Phanfone and start a weakening process.  A combination of stronger wind shear and colder air to the north of Phanfone will initiate a process whereby it is transformed from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone.  It is difficult to determine the exact timing of the extratropical transition and Phanfone will be a powerful extratropical cyclone as it moves across the North Pacific.

Phanfone should gradually turn more toward the north during the next 24 hours as it moves around the western edge of the subtropical high pressure system.  It is likely to take a sharper turn to the northeast later in the weekend when it encounters the upper level westerlies.  Phanfone is likely to approach southern Japan in 36 to 48 hours.  Some models are indicating that it could cross parts of Central Japan, while other models keep the center south of Japan.  In either case Phanfone has the potential to brig locally heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of Japan.