Tropical Storm Karl strengthened over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located at latitude 22.0°N and longitude 94.5°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Karl was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tuxpan to Frontera, Mexico.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that Tropical Storm Karl was stronger on Wednesday afternoon. Even though Tropical Storm Karl was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in eastern half of Karl’s circulation. Bands in the western half of Karl consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Karl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Karl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Karl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The western part of the ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karl’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Karl has been moving slowly. The winds near the surface are mixing cooler water to the surface of the Gulf Of Mexico. Tropical Storm Karl could strengthen during the next 18 hours, unless too much cooler water mixes to the surface. The upper level winds are forecast to get stronger later on Thursday. More vertical wind shear is likely to cause Karl to weaken.

Tropical Storm Karl will move around the western part of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Karl toward the north during the next 12 hours. The high pressure system is forecast to strengthen on Thursday. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will push Karl back toward the south. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Karl will move back toward the coast of Mexico on Friday.