Tropical Cyclone Judy intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near Vanuatu on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 168.4°E which put it about 150 miles (245 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near Pentecost and Ambrym on Tuesday morning. The center of Judy’s circulation was about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Toak. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Judy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Judy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 19.1.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Vanuatu. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Judy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move around the southwestern end of a high pressure system during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Judy toward the south during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Judy move near Port Vila in 12 hours. The center of Judy will pass near Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in Pentecost and Ambrym during the next few hours. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Judy will also cause a storm surge where the wind blows water toward the islands. Strong winds and heavy rain will reach Epi and Efate during the next 12 hours. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force could occur near Port Vila within 12 hours.