Tropical Cyclone Likely to Form East of Lesser Antilles

A tropical cyclone is likely to form over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days.  The tropical cyclone is likely to develop from a tropical wave currently designated as Invest 95L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of the tropical wave located at latitude 9.7°N and longitude 35.4°W which put the center about 1720 miles (2775 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A tropical cyclone is likely to form east of the Lesser Antilles from a tropical wave currently designated as Invest 95L.  The structure of Invest 95L exhibited more organization on satellite imagery on Thursday afternoon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to revolve around a possible center of circulation.  Storms in those bands began to generate upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical wave.

The tropical wave designated as Invest 95L will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.  The tropical wave will will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  Invest 95L will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 80% that the tropical wave designated as Invest 95L develops into a tropical cyclone.

The tropical wave designated as Invest 95L will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track, Invest 95L could approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend.  Invest 95L could strengthen to a hurricane by the time it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave designated as Invest 94L was over the Northwest Caribbean Sea.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center was indicating the probability was 30% that Invest 94L develops into a tropical cyclone.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of that tropical wave located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 83.3°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  Invest 94L was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.