Typhoon Noru posed an increased threat to southwestern Japan as it slowly moved closer on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 131.3°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south-southeast of Kagoshima, Japan.  Noru was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Although Noru is still a powerful and dangerous typhoon, it is not quite as well organized as it was several days ago.  A very large eye with a diameter of 95 miles (150 km) is at the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounds the eye.  There are breaks on both the eastern and western sides of the eyewall.  A broad rainband wraps around the southern and eastern sides of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Noru are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the typhoon.  There are few showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern quadrant and there may be drier air in that part of Typhoon Noru.

Winds to typhoon force extend out about 40 miles (65 km/h) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 185 miles (295 km/h) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Noru is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.1

Typhoon Noru will move through an environment that may be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Noru will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northwest of Noru is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the typhoon.  Those winds are creating moderate vertical wind shear.  The typhoon could also pull in drier air on the northwestern side of the circulation.  Even though the environmental factors are mixed, some intensification may be possible during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Noru is approaching the western end of a subtropical ridge which has been steering the typhoon toward the west.  Noru is forecast to slow as the steering currents weaken.  Typhoon Noru is forecast to turn slowly northward during the next 24 hours.  In about 48 hours westerly winds in the middle latitudes will begin to carry the typhoon more quickly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Noru could approach the northern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  It could bring strong winds to Amami-O-Shima.  The center could pass near Yaku-Shima and Tanega-Shima during the weekend.  In a little over two days Typhoon Noru could reach southwestern Kyushu.  Typhoon Noru has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of southwestern Japan during the next few days.  The heavy rain could also cause flash floods.