Maysak Near Super Typhoon Intensity East of Yap

Maysak intensified rapidly on Monday and it is near Super Typhoon intensity.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Maysak was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 142.5°E which put it about 300 miles east of Yap and about 1450 miles east-southeast of Luzon.  Maysak was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 170 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Maysak moved into an area of light upper level winds on Monday, which allowed the well-developed upper level divergence to pump out mass in all directions.  As a result, the surface pressure decreased rapidly and the wind speed increased quickly.  The circulation is very symmetrical and Maysak has a tight inner core.  The eye is exhibiting a stadium effect on visible satellite images which is indicative of a very strong tropical cyclone.  Maysak continues to move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and it could intensify into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  When tropical cyclones get as strong as Maysak is, they often go through eyewall replacement cycles which result in periodic fluctuations of intensity.  On its west-northwesterly track Maysak will gain latitude and it could move into an area of stronger vertical wind shear in 24 to 48 hours.  Increased wind shear would weaken it.

A strong subtropical ridge is steering Maysak toward the west-northwest and that motion is expected to continue in the short term.  The ridge may weaken somewhat in about 24 hours and that would allow Maysak to move in a more northwesterly direction for a day or two.  Later in the week a subtropical ridge is expected to build again and steer Maysak more toward the west again.  On its projected track, the center of Maysak would pass north of Yap in about 24 hours.  However, residents should monitor the typhoon closely in case it takes a more southerly track which would bring the core of stronger winds closer to Yap.  Over the longer term, Maysak could approach Luzon and the northern Philippines in five or six days and it could still be a typhoon at that time.