Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim strengthened east of Madagascar on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 52.6°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) east of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  Eliakim was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim became better organized on Thursday morning.  A partial eyewall surrounded the northern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim.  Storms near the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 to 24 hours.  Eliakim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Eliakim will continue to intensify until it reaches the coast of Madagascar in a day or so.  Eliakim is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Eliakim is moving around the western portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  A general motion toward the west-southwest is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Eliakim could be near the coast of Madagascar south of Ambohitralanana in 18 to 24 hours.  Eliakim will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain over Madagascar.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some areas.

Tropical Cyclone 14S Develops East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 14S developed east of Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 14S was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east-northeast of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar.  It was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct center of circulation developed within a large area of showers and thunderstorms east of Madagascar on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern, western and northern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed primarily south and west of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Cyclone 14S is under an upper level ridge and the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will continue to intensify and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone 14S is moving near the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and a general motion toward the west-southwest is expected.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 14S could be near the east coast of Madagascar near Ambohitralanana in 24 to 36 hours.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Drops Heavy Rain on La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile dropped heavy rain on La Reunion on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was located at latitude 23.3°S and longitude 52.5°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) southwest of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dumazile was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday.  It was a large, powerful tropical cyclone.  There was a small circular eye at the center of the circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several rainbands were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 30.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Dumazile would be capable of causing extensive major damage if it made landfall.

Although the core of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile passed between Madagascar and La Reunion, the circulation was so large that rainbands on the eastern side of Dumazile passed over La Reunion.  Those rainbands dropped locally heavy rain and there were unconfirmed reports of flooding in parts of La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has likely reached its peak intensity.  Dumazile is currently moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but the tropical cyclone will move over colder water when it moves farther south.  An upper level trough near southern Africa is producing northwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating vertical wind shear and the shear is forecast to increase during the next several days.  The colder water and increased wind shear are forecast to weaken Tropical Cyclone Dumazile during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has rounded the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is now moving toward the south-southeast.  A general southeastward motion is forecast for the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumazile should move away from Madagascar and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Passes Between Madagascar and La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile passed between Madagascar and La Reunion on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 51.1°E which put it about 280 miles (450 km) west of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Dumazile was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Dumazile is a very well organized tropical cyclone. The circulation is symmetrical and there is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile will move through an environment favorable for intensification for about another 24 hours.  Dumazile will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dumazile could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday.  When Dumazile moves farther south in a day or so, it will move over cooler water and into an area where the upper level winds are stronger.  Cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Dumazile to weaken when that happens.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile has rounded the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is now moving toward the south-southeast.  A general southeasterly motion is expected during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dumazile will move away from Madagascar.  Dumazile is forecast to pass southwest of La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile brought wind and rain to eastern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 51.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Ambodifotatra, Madagascar.  Dumazile was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday.  Satellite images suggested that an eye was forming at the center of circulation.  The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dumazile will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will continue to move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dumazile is likely to continue to intensify rapidly on Sunday and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  Dumazile is likely to move more toward the south as it moves around the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Dumazile is forecast to pass east of the coast of Madagascar.  However, rainbands on the western side of the circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of eastern Madagascar.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone 11S Forms East of Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 11S formed east of the northern tip of Madagascar on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11S was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 54.3°E which put it about 535 miles (865 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion.  It was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct center of circulation finally developed on Friday in an area of thunderstorms that had been stationary northeast of Madagascar.  A primary band of storms wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation and then storms began to develop near the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation and the structure of the circulation was organized enough to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 11S will be moving through an environment that is very favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Tropical Cyclone 11S is located under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  There is little vertical wind shear to inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 11S will intensify during the weekend and it is likely to intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone 11S could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone 11S and its precursor have been in an area where the steering winds were weak.  A subtropical ridge located to the east of the tropical cyclone is forecast to strengthen.  The ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 11S toward the south-southwest.  Early model guidance suggests that the center of the tropical cyclone will move between Madagascar and La Reunion, but there is still uncertainty in the future track of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Speeds Past La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta sped past La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 54.3°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southwest of La Reunion.  Berguitta was moving toward the west-southwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moved past La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  So, parts of La Reunion may have experienced winds to hurricane/typhoon force.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force would have occurred over all of La Reunion.  Berguitta also dropped locally heavy rain over La Reunion and flooding is a possibility.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will move into an environment that will become increasingly less favorable for a tropical cyclone as it moves away from La Reunion.  Berguitta is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C, but it will move over colder water when it moves farther south.  An upper level trough west of Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will increase the vertical wind shear.  A combination of colder water and increased shear will slowly weaken Tropical Cyclone Berguitta.  Berguitta will likely make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.

Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  It is expected to continue to move toward the southwest for another day or so.  At that time Berguitta will move around the western end of the ridge and it will move more toward the south.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is expected move steadily away from La Reunion.  Berguitta is forecast to stay east of Madagascar.  Weather conditions on La Reunion should gradually improve as Tropical Cyclone Berguitta moves away.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Brings Wind, Rain to Mauritius & La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was bringing wind and rain to Mauritius and La Reunion late Wednesday as it closed in on those places.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 58.0°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it approached Mauritius and La Reunion.  A partial eyewall surrounded the remnant of the eye.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the circulation.  The heaviest rain was falling in the rainband.  Numerous bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was still generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was moving through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity for another 24 to 36 hours.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Berguitta is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, but they may not be strong enough to weaken the storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will reach Mauritius within six hours.  The center of Berguitta will be near La Reunion in 12 to 14 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will bring strong, gusty winds to Mauritius and La Reunion on Thursday.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over those places.  The center could pass right over Mauritius and the winds to hurricane/typhoon force could blow over it.  The center could pass just to the east of La Reunion, but winds to hurricane/typhoon force could also blow across it.  Berguitta will also drop locally heavy rain which could cause floods.  The winds could cause a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 1.5 meters) on the eastern shores where the winds will be blowing water toward the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Moves Closer to Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta moved closer to Mauritius and La Reunion on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 60.3°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta weakened a little on Tuesday but it remained a dangerous tropical cyclone.  An upper level ridge southeast of Berguitta produced easterly winds which caused some vertical wind shear over the tropical cyclone.  Satellite imagery also suggested that Berguitta could have gone through an eyewall replacement cycle.  The combination of increased wind shear and a possible eyewall replacement cycle altered the structure of Berguitta.  Microwave satellite images intermittently indicated the presence of an eye at the center of circulation.  However, almost all of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  The increased shear probably caused the asymmetrical distribution of storms.

Berguitta will move through an environment supportive of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will likely prevent Berguitta from intensifying significantly.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is forecast to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours, but it could maintain most of its intensity, since it is still over warm water.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is forecast to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius in 24 hours.  Berguitta is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mauritius.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain could cause serious flooding.  The strong winds could generate a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1 to 2 meters) at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach La Reunion within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 62.4°E which put it about 375 miles (600 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed is 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta quickly intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday.  A well formed circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Berguitta were generating upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 215 miles (345 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will move through an environment supportive of a strong tropical cyclone for several more days.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is moving through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is likely to maintain its intensity as the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could intensify further during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general motion toward the southwest is forecast to continue for two or three more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius within 48 hours.  Berguitta could reach La Reunion in less than 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is a dangerous storm.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.7.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is capable of causing regional major damage.  Berguitta will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion.  The heavy rain is likely to cause flooding  and Berguitta could generate a storm surge at the coast.