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Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Churns Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai churned northeast of Mauritius on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 59.7°E which put it about 270 miles (440 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Batsirai was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai intensified slowly over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye was present at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai contracted on Tuesday morning, but the overall size of the circulation increased. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (235 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produced easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Batsirai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear could inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Batsirai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will pass north of Mauritius during the next 24 hours. Although the strongest winds in Batsirai will pass north of Mauritius, it could experience tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rain. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be north of La Reunion in 36 hours. Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar within 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Passes North of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 62.9°E which put it about 495 miles (795 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Batsirai was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of Rodrigues on Sunday night. The circulation around Batsirai remained well organized. A small circular eye was at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai increased in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.3.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produced easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Batsirai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear could inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could strengthen during the next 24 hours. Batsirai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be north of Mauritius in 48 hours. Batsirai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it is north of Mauritius. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach La Reunion in 60 hours. Batsirai could also eventually affect Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Intensifies Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai intensified northeast of Rodrigues on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 65.7°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai continued to intensify on Sunday morning. A small circular eye was present at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was still small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.9.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to continue to intensify. Batsirai could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will pass north of Rodrigues during the next 24 hours. The core of Batsirai will pass north of Rodrigues, but it could still bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in 48 hours. Batsirai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could also eventually affect Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 69.5°E which put it about 420 miles (695 km) east of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened from a tropical storm back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday morning. Microwave satellite images showed that a new pinhole eye had formed at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The tiny eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the tiny core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. The circulation around Batisirai continued to be very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be just north of Rodrigues in less than 48 hours. If the core of Batsirai stays north of Rodrigues, it could still bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Mauritius in three and a half days. Batsirai could also eventually affect La Reunion and Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Moves West Across South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved westward across the South Indian Ocean on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 73.1°E which put it about 655 miles (1060 km) east of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened almost as fast during the past 24 hours as it had intensified previously. The tiny pinhole eye collapsed and the distribution of thunderstorms became asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and southern parts of Batsirai’s circulation. Bands in the northeastern part of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Batsirai.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to intensify during the next 48 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be near Rodrigues within 72 hours. Batsirai could approach Mauritius in five days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it affects Rodrigues and Mauritius. Batsirai could also eventually affect La Reunion and Madagascar later next week.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 1090 miles (1760 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after it developed over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday night. A tiny pinhole eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) quickly formed at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The strongest winds were occurring about 6 miles (10 km) from the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was very small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Batsirai to weaken. Since the circulation around Batsirai is very small, if the tropical cyclone moves into a less favorable environment, it could weaken rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach Rodrigues, Mauritius, La Reunion and eventually Madagascar next week. Batsirai could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches those places.