Tag Archives: IO02

Tropical Cyclone Yaas Intensifies South of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Yaas intensified over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yaas was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 88.0°E which put it about 305 miles (495 km) south of Kolkata, India. Yaas was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas strengthened to almost the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon south of Kokata on Monday night. The distribution of thunderstorms around Yaas remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Yaas. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Yaas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Yaas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Yaas will make landfall on the coastline of Odisha southwest of Kolkata in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. Yaas is likely to bring damaging winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will cause a dangerous storm surge of up to 9 feet (3 meters) on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Bay of Bengal

A tropical cyclone formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of a tropical cyclone was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 89.8°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) south-southeast of Kolkata, India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday night and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone 02B by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was still organizing. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the outer portion of the circulation around the tropical cyclone. The inner end of a rainband began to wrap around the western side of the center of circulation. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

The tropical cyclone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. The tropical cyclone will intensify during the next 24 hours. It could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. The tropical cyclone could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

The tropical cyclone will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical cyclone could approach the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal in 48 hours. It will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. The tropical cyclone is likely to bring damaging winds, and locally heavy rain. It will also likely cause a dangerous storm surge on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Nisagra Makes Landfall South of Mumbai

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga made landfall south of Mumbai, India on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday night before it made landfall on the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Nisarga.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga brought winds to hurricane/typhoon force to a portion of the west coast of India south of Mumbai.  Those winds would have pushed water toward the coast.  The would have generated a storms surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near where the center of Nisarga made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Nears Mumbai

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga neared  Mumbai, India on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga strengthened quickly on Tuesday night as it moved closer to the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nisarga.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will make landfall on the west coast of India south of Mumbai in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will continue to intensify until it makes landfall.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Nisarga.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring strong winds to the west coast of India.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they could cause a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near Mumbai and near where the center makes landfall.  Nisarga will also drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Develops West of India

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga developed west of India on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 16.0° and longitude 71.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea west of India strengthened on Tuesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nisarga.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nisarga.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nisagra.  Nisagra could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the north during the next 12 hours.  Nisarga will move more toward the north-northeast when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nisarga could approach Mumbai in about 24 hours.  Nisarga could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mumbai.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mumbai on Wednesday.  Nisarga could also cause a storm surge of  3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in the area around Mumbai where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra and southern Gujarat.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Weakens South of Pakistan

Tropical Cyclone Vayu weakened over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 65.3°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.  Vayu was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The low level circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu remained well organized on Saturday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the southern half of the former eyewall and in several rainbands in the southern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in the remaining portion of the eyewall.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu continued to draw drier air into the northern half of the tropical cyclone on Saturday.  An upper level ridge north of Vayu was producing strong northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The drier air and wind shear were the primary factors causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Even though Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, the combined effects of the drier air and the wind shear are likely to cause the tropical cyclone to continue to weaken on Sunday.  If the upper level winds get stronger, they could blow the upper half of the circulation southwest of the lower part of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  In that case Vayu will weaken more quickly.

The future track of Tropical Cyclone Vayu will also depend on the vertical wind shear.  If the wind shear is not too strong and the circulation remains vertically intact, then the ridge north of Vayu will steer the tropical cyclone slowly toward the northwest on Sunday.  If the upper level winds blow the upper half of the circulation away from the lower portion of Tropical Cyclone Vayu, then southwesterly winds in the lower atmosphere will blow the shallower system toward the northeast.  Guidance from numerical models suggest this second scenario is more likely and the anticipated track takes Tropical Cyclone Vayu toward the northeast.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Stalls, Weakens Southwest of Gujarat

Tropical Storm Vayu stalled and weakened southwest of Gujarat on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 67.4°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) southwest of Dwarka, India.  Vayu was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The structure of the inner core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu changed significantly on Friday.  The previous small eye disappeared and a large new eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Vayu.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The strongest rainbands were located in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The environment around Tropical Cyclone Vayu will become less favorable for a tropical cyclone on Saturday.  An upper level ridge north of Vayu will strengthen.  The ridge will produce stronger northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu will also continue to pull drier air into the northern half of the circulation.  Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vayu will be over very warm water, the combined effects of stronger wind shear and drier air are likely to cause it to weaken on Saturday.

The ridge north of Vayu will block the tropical cyclone from moving toward the north on Saturday.  The ridge is likely to continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Vayu slowly toward the west over the northeastern Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Vayu will move farther away from Gujarat and Pakistan on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Turns West Over Northeast Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Vayu turned west over the northeastern Arabian Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 68.4°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southwest of Porbandar, India.  Vayu was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu maintained its intensity on Thursday, but the circulation exhibited slightly less organization.  A small eye continued to mark the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye, but there was a break in the northeastern portion of the ring.  The circulation continued to pull drier air into the northern part of the tropical cyclone.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Rainbands in the northern half of the circulation were weaker.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will continue to move through an environment capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone on Friday.  Vayu will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the northeastern Arabian Sea is near 30°C.  However, Tropical Cyclone Vayu moved slowly on Thursday and it may have stirred some cooler water to the surface.  In addition, the circulation around Vayu will continue to draw in drier air from over south Asia.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu could start to weaken slowly on Friday, although it could maintain its intensity if it moves away from the upwelled cooler water.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will be south of a strengthening ridge of high pressure over south Asia.  The ridge will block Vayu and prevent it from moving farther toward the north.  The ridge will steer Vayu slowly toward the west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vayu will remain southwest of Gujarat and south of Pakistan during the next two days.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Slows Near Gujarat Coast

Tropical Cyclone Vayu slowed near the coast of Gujarat on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south-southwest of Porbandar, India.  Vayu was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vayu weakened slightly on Wednesday, although the inner core appeared to remain mostly intact.  The circulation seemed to pull some drier air over India into the eastern and northern portions of Vayu.  Outer rainbands weakened in those parts of the tropical cyclone.  The drier air did not appear to have penetrated the inner core of the circulation.  A tiny eye remained at the center of circulation.  A ring of showers and thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of strong thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move through an environment that will be mainly favorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge where winds are weaker and there will be less vertical wind shear.  The drier air being pulled into the circulation from over India will be a factor that could inhibit any additional strengthening of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  Vayu could strengthen during the next 24 hours, but it is more likely to maintain its intensity or weaken slightly.  If drier air mixes into the inner core of the circulation, then Tropical Cyclone Vayu could weaken more quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move around the western end of a ridge over India during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The ridge will steer Vayu toward the north-northwest on Thursday.  A second ridge will develop north of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  The second ridge will block the northward movement of Vayu and force the tropical cyclone to move more toward the west.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu will remain west of the coast of Gujarat.  Bands on the eastern side of the circulation could drop rain over Gujarat but the strongest part of the circulation is likely to remain offshore.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Vayu strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the eastern Arabian Sea on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  Vayu was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Microwave satellite imagery indicated that an inner rainband had wrapped completely around the center of circulation and a small eye had formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Vayu.  The core of Vayu was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force only extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.  Storms around the core of Tropical Cyclone Vayu were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass to the west of the tropical cyclone.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Vayu.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Vayu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move near the southwestern portion of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu will intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours.  It could intensify rapidly once the eye and eyewall are fully formed.  Vayu could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Vayu will move around the western end of a ridge over India.  The ridge will steer Vayu toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vayu could approach the coast of Gujarat within 36 hours.  Vayu could be the equivalent of a major hurricane by that time.  It could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Gujarat.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Vayu could also generate a significant storm surge along the coast of Gujarat.