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Typhoons Sarika and Haima Churning Over Western North Pacific

Typhoons Sarika and Haima churned across the western North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) east-southeast of Hainan Island.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Haima was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 135.9°E which put it about 935 miles (1505 km) east-southeast of Luzon.  Haima was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika was disrupted somewhat when it crossed northern Luzon.  Thunderstorms around the eye weakened and breaks developed in the eyewall.  More and stronger thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation today and an eye has become more apparent on satellite imagery.  Numerous rainbands are rotating around the rest of the circulation.  Upper level divergence is increasing, which will increase the removal of mass from the core of Typhoon Sarika.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Sarika is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is above 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could intensify quickly if the eye finishes reforming.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Sarika toward the west .  Sarika is nearing the western end of the ridge and the typhoon is expected to turn more toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Sarika could be near Hainan Island in about 24 hours.  After it crosses Hainan Island, Marika could approach the coast of northern Vietnam in about two days.  Typhoon Sarika will bring strong winds and very heavy rain to Hainan.  It will weaken when it moves across Hainan, but Sarika could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam and parts of southeastern China.

Typhoon Haima is developing into a very strong and dangerous typhoon.  Haima has a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of very strong thunderstorms.  Rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Haima are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

Typhoon Haima is moving through an environment that is favorable for continued intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Haima is likely to continue to intensify and it could reach super typhoon status.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Haima toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Haima could be near the northern end of Luzon in about three days.  It could be a very powerful typhoon at that time.

Powerful Typhoon Sarika Makes Landfall in Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Sarika made landfall in Luzon near Baler on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 122.3°E which put it near Baler, Philippines and about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Sarika is a powerful, well organized typhoon.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Sarika.  The core of Typhoon Sarika is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Typhoon Sarika was intensifying rapidly until it made landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Sarika is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional major wind damage.  Typhoon Sarika will also generate a storm surge along the coast of Luzon north of the eye where the wind will push water toward the coast.  Sarika will also produce heavy rain over northern Luzon which will create a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Marika toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track across Luzon the center of Typhoon Sarika will pass near San Jose City,  Baguio and Dagupan.  The center of Sarika could emerge over the South China Sea near the Lingayen Gulf.  The core of Typhoon Sarika will move across the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Cordillera Central.  Where winds blow up the slopes of the mountains, rising motion will be stronger and the rainfall will be heavier.  The mountains will also disrupt the airflow in the lower part of Sarika’s circulation and the typhoon will weaken.

It could take the center of Typhoon Sarika about 12 hours to move across Luzon.  The environment of the Sea China Sea will  be favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature is warm and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If the core of the circulation remains reasonably intact, then Typhoon Sarika could intensify again while it moves across the South China Sea.  Sarika could eventually move near Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam in a few days.

Typhoon Sarika Near Catanduanes Island, Threatens Luzon

The center of Typhoon Sarika is located near Catanduanes Island and Sarika poses a serious threat to Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 124.8°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika is well organized.  An eye has appeared at times on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eye and strong thunderstorms are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional, well formed rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The convection around the core is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika will continue to intensify as long as the center stays over the water and it could intensify rapidly now that the circulation is well organized.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Sarika will remain north of Catanduanes Island.  It will pass just to the north of Daet and Labo on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Sarika could be near or just to the north of the Polillo Islands in 12-16 hours.  Sarika could make a landfall near Baler on Luzon in 18-24 hours.

Sarika is a well organized intensifying typhoon.  It could bring strong winds to portions of northern Luzon.  Typhoon Sarika will also bring very heavy rain and create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Sarika will generate a storm surge in places where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Sarika Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Sarika formed east of the Philippines on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Sarika was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 127.0°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Sarika is still organizing.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in a broad rainband that curls around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  There are a few thunderstorms in thinner rainbands in the eastern half of the circulation.  More thunderstorms are developing closer to the center of circulation.  Those thunderstorms are beginning to produce upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  As the mass is removed, the pressure decreases and the wind speeds increase.

Tropical Storm Sarika is moving through an environment that is generally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the north of Sarika is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear may account for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms, but it is not strong enough to prevent Sarika from intensifying.  The vertical wind shear could slow the rate of intensification while the core of the circulation becomes better organized.  Sarika could strengthen into a typhoon with the next 24 to 36 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  In a day or so Tropical Storm Sarika is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sarika could be near Catanduanes Island in about 24 hours.  Sarika could be near Central Luzon in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Sarika is expected to intensify into a typhoon.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Dianmu Forms Near Hainan Island

A center of circulation developed within a larger cyclonic rotation associated with the monsoon near Hainan Island and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as Tropical Storm Dianmu.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 109.7°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) east of Hanoi, Vietnam.  Dianmu was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Dianmu consists of a smaller counterclockwise rotation inside a much larger cyclonic flow associated with the monsoonal circulation.  Thunderstorms clustered around the western and southern portion of the smaller counterclockwise rotation and a distinct inner core developed that is separate from the broader center of the monsoonal gyre.  Additional spiral bands formed outside the core.  The thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence, primarily to the south and west of Tropical Storm Diamnu.

Tropical Storm Dianmu is moving through an environment that is favorable for additional strengthening.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  An upper level ridge centered over China is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Dianmu.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, which is slowing the rate of intensification of the tropical storm.  The proximity of Dianmu to the coast is also slowing the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Dianmu has 12 to 18 hours to intensify before it moves over land.

The upper level ridge over China is steering Tropical Storm Dianmu toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu could reach the coast of Vietnam in 12 to 18 hours.  Dianmu could cause some minimal wind damage and storm surge, but heavy rain will be the greatest threat.  Tropical Storm Dianmu could cause flash flooding when it moves inland over Southeast Asia.

Tropical Storm Mirinae Bringing Wind and Heavy Rain to Vietnam

Tropical Storm Mirinae is bringing wind and heavy rain as it moves inland over northern Vietnam.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm MIrinae was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 105.6°E which put it about 45 miles (70 km) south of Hanoi, Vietnam.  Mirinae was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

As it moved over the Gulf of Tongking, Tropical Storm Mirinae intensified rapidly during the final few hours before it made landfall on the coast of northern Vietnam.  Microwave and infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye developed in the center of circulation and a circular ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  Tropical Storm Mirinae may have been near typhoon intensity at the time it made landfall.

Tropical Storm Mirinae has weakened somewhat as it moved inland over northern Vietnam.  However, it does still exhibit a very well organized, circular structure.  The upper level divergence has been more impressive than it has been at any time during the existence of Mirinae.  The strongest winds are occurring near the core of the tropical storm and in rainbands over the open water of the Gulf of Tongking.  Mirinae will gradually weaken further as the circulation spins down over land.

Tropical Storm Mirinae will produce very heavy rain as it moves across northern Vietnam toward northern Laos.  The rapid intensification and improved structure of Mirinae mean that the rain will be heavier and will continue for a longer period.  Heavy, persistent rainfall will create the potential for serious flash flooding.

Tropical Storm Mirinae Moving Over Hainan Island

A defined center of circulation developed within a cluster of thunderstorms that moved west of the Philippines on Tuesday and the system was designated Tropical Storm Mirinae.  Tropical Storm Mirinae is now moving over Hainan Island and it is bringing heavy rain to the southern portion of the island.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Mirinae was located at latitude 19.3°N and 109.4°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Haikou, China.  Mirinae was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (90 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An upper level ridge over Asia is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing over the top of Tropical Storm Mirinae.  The moderate vertical wind shear is causing most of the strong thunderstorms to be located in the southern half of the tropical storm.  Those thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence to the south of the center of circulation, but the northeasterly winds are inhibiting the motion of air trying to diverge to the north of Mirinae.

Tropical Storm MIrinae is in an environment that is not overly favorable for intensification.  It is moving over Hainan Island and increased surface friction will slow the circulation.  The moderate vertical wind shear is also a negative factor.  However, when the center of circulation moves west of Hainan Island, it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, some re-intensifcation could occur before Tropical Storm MIrinae makes landfall in Asia.

A subtropical ridge northeast of MIrinae is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mirinae will move over the Gulf of Tongking in a few hours.  The center of Tropical Storm Mirinae could reach the coast of northern Vietnam in about 24 hours.

MIrinae is a minimal tropical storm and it is not likely to intensify a great deal.  Heavy rain and floods are the primary risks associated with Tropical Storm Mirinae.  The heaviest rain is likely to fall near and south of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Vamco Forms East of Vietnam

A large area of low pressure east of Vietnam developed enough organization on Sunday to be classified as Tropical Storm Vamco.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Vamco was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 110.0°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Vamco was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Although there is a large area of low pressure, the circulation around Tropical Storm Vamco is not well organized.  Most of the thunderstorms are located in a large rainband about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation that wraps around the northern and western parts of the storm.  There are not many thunderstorms located near the center of the circulation.  Vamco is located over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, an upper level ridge is generating northeasterly winds over the top of the storm and the vertical wind shear is inhibiting development.  Some intensification is possible in the short term, but the lack of a well formed inner core and proximity to land will limit strengthening.

A subtropical ridge north of Vamco is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that steering pattern is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Vamco will reach the central coast of Vietnam in about 18 hours.  The primary impacts will be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.