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Tropical Storm Mulan Brings Rain to Southern China

Tropical Storm Mulan brought rain to southern China on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Mulan was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 108.9°E which put it about 40 miles (60 km) southwest of Beihai, China. Mulan was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Rainbands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Mulan brought rain to parts of southern China on Wednesday. Rain fell over coastal parts of southern China from Hong Kong to the border with Vietnam. Tropical Storm Mulan also dropped locally heavy rain on Hainan Island. Rainbands in the northwestern part of Mulan’s circulation brought rain to northeastern Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move across the Gulf of Tonkin during the next 12 hours toward northern Vietnam. Mulan will move south of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean and eastern China. The high pressure system will steer Mulan toward the west-northwest during the next day or so. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Mulan will make landfall on the coast of northeastern Vietnam in about 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Mulan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over eastern Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mulan’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Mulan is likely to maintain its current intensity during the next 12 hours, but it could strengthen a little prior to landfall in northeastern Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Mulan Forms South of Hong Kong

Tropical Storm Mulan formed over the South China Sea south of Hing Kong on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Mulan was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 112.8°E which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south of Hong Kong. Mulan was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A small low pressure system on the eastern side of a much larger low pressure system over the South China Sea south of Hong Kong strengthened on Tuesday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Mulan. The circulation around Tropical Storm Mulan was embedded in a larger low pressure system over the South China Sea which had a diameter of 700 miles (1130 km). The distribution of thunderstorms around Mulan was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the eastern half of Mulan’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Mulan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mulan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the eastern side of a broad upper level low over the South China Sea. The upper low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mulan’s circulation. The winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the south. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though the water will be warm and there will be little vertical wind shear, the fact that Tropical Storm Mulan is a smaller low pressure system embedded in a much larger low pressure system is likely to inhibit intensification.

Tropical Storm Mulan will move around the northeastern part of the larger low pressure system over the South China Sea during the next 24 hours. The larger low pressure system will steer Mulan toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mulan could approach the south coast of China near Zhanjiang within 24 hours. Mulan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern China. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.