Tag Archives: Cuba

Tropical Storm Elsa Speeds Toward Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Elsa was speeding toward the Windward Islands on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 50.2°W which put it about 780 miles (1255 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Elsa was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe and Grenada.

The circulation in a tropical wave east-southeast of the Windward Islands exhibited a little more organization on Thursday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Elsa. The distribution of thunderstorms around Elsa was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the tropical storm. Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A rainband appeared to be starting to wrap around the eastern side of the center of circulation. Despite the fact that the strongest thunderstorms were in the southern half of Elsa, the strongest winds were occurring north of the center of circulation. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical storm was producing the most force to the north of the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Elsa. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get a little stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it could weaken back to a tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will reach the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico be early next week.

Tropical Storm Eta Reorganizes Near Western Cuba

Tropical Storm Eta reorganized near western Cuba on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 23.2°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba. Eta was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta exhibited more organization on Monday night. Thunderstorms redeveloped around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Thunderstorms also increased in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) on the northern side of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 50 miles in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification on Tuesday. Eta will move over the Loop Current which transports warm water from the Caribbean Sea into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Eta will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level low centered over Cuba will produce northerly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Tuesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will slowly decrease. Tropical Storm Eta will intensify on Tuesday and it could strengthen back into a hurricane.

The upper low over Cuba has been steering Tropical Storm Eta toward the southwest, but the steering winds are likely to weaken on Tuesday. Eta could stall northwest of Cuba. An upper level trough over the Rocky Mountains will move east during the next several days. The southern end of the trough could start to pull Eta toward the north on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, an extratropical cyclone southwest of the Azores made a transition to Subtropical Storm Theta. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 28.8°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 995 miles (1600 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Eta Strengthens, Hurricane Watch for Florida

Tropical Storm Eta strengthened a little more Saturday evening and A Hurricane Watch was issued for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) west-southwest of Camaguey, Cuba. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta continued to strengthen on Saturday evening. There were occasional infrared satellite images that suggested a small eye could be forming at the center of Eta. There was a ring of strong thunderstorms around the center and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The strongest rainbands were in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation around Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were blowing in the northern half of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the few hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Eta. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta is likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Saturday night. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches the Florida Keys.

The upper level trough will make a transition to a cutoff low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico which will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta toward the northeast on Saturday night . On its anticipated track Eta could move across Cuba west of Camaguey on Saturday night. Tropical Storm Eta will drop heavy rain when it moves across Cuba and flash floods could occur. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could be a hurricane at that time. Eta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level could rise up to six feet (2 meters). The strong winds could also cause widespread power outages in South Florida.

Eta Strengthens Back to Tropical Storm, Warnings Issued for Florida

Former Tropical Depression Eta strengthened back to a tropical storm on Saturday morning and Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 80.1°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) north of Grand Cayman Island. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Golden Beack to Chokoloskee, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to Englewood, Florida and from JGolden Beach to the Brevard/Volusia County Line. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Observations from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane and from Grand Cayman Island indicated that the center of former Tropical Depression Eta reformed in a cluster of thunderstorms near Grand Cayman. The reconnaissance plane was still sampling the circulation around Tropical Storm Eta but the available date suggested that it was much better organized. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the eastern and northern part of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Eta. Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease and Tropical Storm Eta was intensifying more quickly. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be less vertical wind shear under the ridge. Eta could intensify rapidly during the next 12 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Eta is likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Saturday night . The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches South Florida. An upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta on Sunday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. The wind shear caused by the upper low could eventually cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone.

An upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast on Saturday. On its anticipated track Eta could move across Cuba on Saturday night and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could be a hurricane at that time. Eta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level could rise up to six feet (2 meters).

Tropical Depression Eta Prompts Watches for South Florida, Keys and Northwest Bahamas

Expected intensification of Tropical Depression Eta prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for parts of South Florida, the Florida Keys and the Northwestern Bahamas. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 85.2°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) west-southwest of Gran Cayman Island. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of South Florida from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach. It included Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.

The structure of the circulation around Tropical Depression Eta exhibited a little more organization on satellite imagery on Friday evening. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Eta. There were also more thunderstorms in bands in the eastern half of the circulation. Bands in the western half of Eta contained more showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the depression. Removal of mass could allow the surface pressure to decrease on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be less vertical wind shear under the ridge and Eta is likely to strengthen back to a tropical storm on Saturday. A upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta on Sunday. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. Eta is also likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Sunday. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches South Florida. The wind shear caused by the upper low could eventually cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone.

The upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast on Saturday. Eta could pass near the Cayman Islands on Saturday. Eta is likely to move across Cuba on Sunday morning and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach South Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level will rise several feet.

Potential Redevelopment of Eta Prompts Tropical Storm Watch for Cayman Islands

Potential redevelopment of former Hurricane Eta prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 87.7°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) west of La Ceiba, Honduras. Eta was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Cayman Islands.

The low level center of former Hurricane Eta appeared to move north-northwest across Honduras on Thursday. Mountains in Honduras disrupted the surface circulation around Tropical Depression Eta as the day went on and the center became less distinct. That created more uncertainty about the location and movement of the low level center. There was a cluster of thunderstorms in a band north of Honduras and it was possible that a new center could form near that cluster of storms. Thunderstorms were also dropping heavy rain over Belize in bands located northwest of the apparent low level center of circulation. There were additional reports of flash floods from Honduras and floods could also have occurred in parts of Belize.

Tropical Depression Eta will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure during the next 12 to 24 hours. The high will steer Eta toward the north during that time. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eta will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during Thursday night. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will move toward Eta on Friday. The southern end of the trough will make a transition to a cutoff low during the weekend. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the northeast during the weekend. Eta could pass near the Cayman Islands on Saturday. Eta is likely to move across Cuba on Sunday and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued for part of Cuba at any time. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Monday and it could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys and South Florida.

When Tropical Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will initially be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker. There will be little vertical wind shear under the ridge and Eta is likely to strengthen back to a tropical storm on Friday. The cutoff low will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta during the weekend. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear, which could limit further intensification of Eta. The wind shear could also cause Eta to develop a structure more like a subtropical cyclone, if the shear is stronger.

Tropical Storm Eta Drops Heavy Rain on Nicaragua and Honduras

Tropical Storm Eta dropped heavy rain on Nicaragua and Honduras on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 85.7°W which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Eta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The wind speeds in former Hurricane Eta decreased steadily on Wednesday as it move farther inland over northern Nicaragua. Eta weakened to a tropical storm, but the storm continued to drop heavy rain over parts of northern Nicaragua and Honduras. There were reports of flash floods in a number of locations. Thunderstorms in bands on the western and northern periphery of Tropical Storm Eta also dropped heavy rain over parts of Belize, Guatemala and Costa Rica. A strong rainband was also over the Caribbean Sea just east of Nicaragua.

Tropical Storm Eta will likely weaken to a tropical depression during Wednesday night. However, Eta will continue to drop locally heavy rain and more flash floods are likely to occur. Tropical Storm Eta will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure on Thursday. The high will steer Eta toward the west-northwest on Thursday. On its anticipated track Eta will move across Honduras to near the coast of Belize.

A upper level trough east of the Rocky Mountains is forecast to move southeast toward the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. The southern end of the end of the trough will make a transition into a cutoff low. Counterclockwise circulation around the cutoff low will pull Eta toward the northeast on Friday. When Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea it will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Eta could strengthen back into a tropical storm on Friday night. It is possible that Eta could develop the structure of a subtropical storm if the cutoff low causes enough wind shear to keep it from becoming a tropical storm again.

The counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta more toward the north during the weekend. Eta is likely to move across Cuba and it could drop heavy rain when it does so. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Sunday and it could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys and South Florida.

Major Hurricane Eta Makes Landfall in Nicaragua

Major Hurricane Eta made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 83.5°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Eta was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta Patuca, Honduras.

Hurricane Eta moved very slowly onto the coast of Nicaragua just to south of Puerto Cabezas on Tuesday afternoon. Concentric eyewalls developed around the center of Eta before it made landfall. The start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the intensity of Hurricane Eta to remain relatively steady as it approached the coast of Nicaragua. An environment favorable for strong hurricanes allowed Eta to continue to be a major hurricane at the time of landfall.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hurricane Eta at the time it made landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Eta was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7.

Hurricane Eta was capable of causing significant wind damage. over northeastern Nicaragua. The northern eyewall which contained the strongest winds passed over Puerto Cabezas. Eta could also cause a storm surge of 15 to 18 feet (5 to 6 meters) along the coast near Puerto Cabezas. Hurricane Eta will weaken as it moves slowly inland over northern Nicaragua and the wind speeds will decrease quickly. Eta will drop very heavy rain over northern Nicaragua and Honduras. Some locations could receive 20 to 30 inches (50 to 75 cm). The heavy rain could cause catastrophic flash floods in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Eta will move more toward the northwest on Wednesday and the circulation could emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. There is a chance that Eta could strengthen back to a tropical storm if the circulation moves back over water. Eta could bring gusty winds and rain to the Florida Keys by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Zeta Strengthens over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 260 miles (425 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Warning included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened during Sunday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The stronger thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Zeta. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Despite the asymmetrical structure, thunderstorms near that center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Zeta. The winds on the western side of Zeta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Zeta could weaken if the center passes over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta on Monday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta could be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could reach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Epsilon made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 48.6°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

TD 28 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Zeta

Tropical Depression Twentyeight strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Watch included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA airplane and a scatterometer on a satellite, the National Hurricane Center determined that Tropical Depression Twentyeight had strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday morning. The circulation around Zeta was still not well organized. The circulation in the middle troposphere was located to the east of the surface center. The lower level circulation seemed to be shifting closer to the middle level circulation and it was possible that a new center could be developing under the middle level rotation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the middle level center. Storms near that center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Data from the airplane indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of Zeta. The tropical storm force winds extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If Zeta remains stationary for another 12 to 24 hours, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface, which could interrupt intensification. Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Zeta will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. Zeta could meander over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta later on Sunday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.