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Tropical Storm Zeta Strengthens over Northwest Caribbean

Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 260 miles (425 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Warning included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened during Sunday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The stronger thunderstorms were mostly occurring in bands in the southern half of Zeta. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Despite the asymmetrical structure, thunderstorms near that center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease, which caused the wind speed to increase. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Zeta. The winds on the western side of Zeta were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane. Zeta could weaken if the center passes over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta on Monday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night. Zeta could be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan. Zeta will move more toward the north on Wednesday when it moves around the western end of the ridge. Zeta could reach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Epsilon made a transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone east of Newfoundland. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 48.6°N and longitude 38.8°W which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

TD 28 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Zeta

Tropical Depression Twentyeight strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Zeta was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos and for Cozumel. The Hurricane Watch included Cancun. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

Based on data from a NOAA airplane and a scatterometer on a satellite, the National Hurricane Center determined that Tropical Depression Twentyeight had strengthened to Tropical Storm Zeta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea early on Sunday morning. The circulation around Zeta was still not well organized. The circulation in the middle troposphere was located to the east of the surface center. The lower level circulation seemed to be shifting closer to the middle level circulation and it was possible that a new center could be developing under the middle level rotation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the middle level center. Storms near that center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Data from the airplane indicated that winds to tropical storm force were occurring southeast of the center of Zeta. The tropical storm force winds extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Zeta.

Tropical Storm Zeta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Zeta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will be under an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If Zeta remains stationary for another 12 to 24 hours, its winds will mix cooler water to the surface, which could interrupt intensification. Tropical Storm Zeta will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Zeta will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 12 to 24 hours. Zeta could meander over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during that time. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen to the northeast of Tropical Storm Zeta later on Sunday. The ridge will steer Zeta toward the northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Zeta could pass near the northeastern tip of Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Epsilon was passing south of Newfoundland. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Epsilon was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Hurricane Epsilon Passes East of Bermuda

Hurricane Epsilon passed east of Bermuda on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 32.6°N and longitude 61.6°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb. The government of Bermuda discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning.

Hurricane Epsilon weakened as it passed east of Bermuda on Thursday night. The eye was no longer apparent on satellite images. Breaks developed in the ring of thunderstorms around the eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continued to revolve around the core of Hurricane Epsilon. Storms near the core still generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of Epsilon. Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center.

Hurricane Epsilon will move through an environment that could allow it to maintain its intensity for another 24 to 36 hours.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Upper level westerly winds in the middle latitude will create more vertical wind shear on Saturday. The wind shear will cause Epsilon to start to weaken and it will begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Hurricane Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the northeast during the weekend when it reaches the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. On its anticipated track Hurricane Epsilon will pass southeast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the weekend.

Hurricane Epsilon Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Epsilon rapidly intensified to status as a major hurricane on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located at latitude 29.6°N and longitude 60.0°W which put it about 340 miles (545 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Epsilon continued to strengthen rapidly Wednesday afternoon. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found on Wednesday afternoon that Epsilon rapidly intensified to a major hurricanee. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was that the center of Hurricane Epsilon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Epsilon. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of Epsilon. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly which caused the wind speeds to increase rapidly. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. The broader circulation around Hurricane Epsilon was large, especially on the northern side. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) on the northern side of Epsilon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Epsilon.

Hurricane Epsilon will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some drier air may wrap around the southern side of the circulation, but the drier air is not forecast to penetrate to the core of the hurricane. Epsilon could strengthen further during the next day or so.

Hurricane Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge on Thursday. On its anticipated track Hurricane Epsilon could pass east of Bermuda on Thursday night.

Epsilon Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Epsilon intensified into a hurricane on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 56.8°W which put it about 545 miles (875 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Former Tropical Storm Epsilon continued to strengthen on Tuesday night. An eye formed at the center of Epsilon. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Epsilon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of Epsilon. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. The broader circulation around Hurricane Epsilon was large, especially on the northern side. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (500 km) on the northern side of Epsilon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Epsilon.

Hurricane Epsilon will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some drier air may wrap around the southern side of the circulation, but the drier air is not forecast to penetrate to the core of the hurricane. Epsilon could intensify during the next 24 hours to 36 hours.

Hurricane Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Hurricane Epsilon could pass east of Bermuda on Thursday night.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Strengthens, Watch Issued for Bermuda

Tropical Storm Epsilon strengthened on Tuesday and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 27.9°N and longitude 55.8°W which put it about 615 miles (995 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. Epsilon was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Epsilon strengthened steadily on Tuesday. The structure of Epsilon exhibited much better organization on satellite imagery. Thunderstorms formed all around the center of circulation. There were occasional indications that an eye could be forming at the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Epsilon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Epsilon was large, especially on the northern side. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 300 miles (500 km) on the northern side of Epsilon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Epsilon.

Tropical Storm Espilon will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next couple of days.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some drier air may wrap around the southern side of the circulation, but the drier air is not forecast to penetrate to the core of the tropical storm. Epsilon could intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Epsilon will move around the southwestern part of ridge of high pressure over the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will steer Epsilon toward the northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Epsilon will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Epsilon could pass east of Bermuda on Thursday night. Epsilon is likely to be a hurricane when it passes east of Bermuda.

TD 27 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Epsilon

Tropical Depression Twentyseven strengthened into Tropical Storm Epsilon formed southeast of Bermuda on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 55.3°W which put it about 735 miles (1185 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Epsilon was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Based on data from satellites the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Twentyseven to Tropical Storm Epsilon on Monday morning.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Epsilon was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Epsilon.  One of the rainbands was beginning to wrap around the northern side of the tropical storm. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm

Tropical Storm Espilon will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Epsilon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be south of an upper level trough.  The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and they will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Espilon from strengthening.  The upper level trough will move northeast in a day or so and the wind shear will decrease.  Epsilon could intensify into a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Epsilon will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next day or so.  After that time a ridge of high pressure will develop northeast of Epsilon.  The ridge will start to steer the tropical storm toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Epsilon could approach Bermuda by the end of the week.  Epsilon could be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.

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Tropical Depression 27 Forms Southeast of Bermuda

Tropical Depression Twentyseven formed southeast of Bermuda on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Twentyseven was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 55.5°W which put it about 720 miles (1155 km) southeast of Bermuda.  The depression was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system southeast of Bermuda on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Twentyseven.  The distribution of thunderstorms around the newly formed depression was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the depression.  Bands in the western half of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the east of the depression.

Tropical Depression Twentyseven will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will be south of an upper level trough.  The trough will produce westerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds are contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and they will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep the depression from strengthening into a tropical storm.  The upper level trough will move northeast in a day or so and the wind shear will decrease.  The depression could intensify into a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Depression Twentyseven will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next day or so.  After that time a ridge of high pressure will develop northeast of the depression.  The ridge will start to steer the depression toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track the depression could approach Bermuda by the end of the week.  It could be a hurricane when it approaches Bermuda.