Tag Archives: Honduras

Tropical Depression 16 Organizes Near Nicaragua

Tropical Depression Sixteen organized near Nicaragua on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south-southeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Sixteen exhibited more organization on Wednesday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found a distinct surface center of circulation on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms began to form near the center on Wednesday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed on the northern and southern sides of the circulation.  There were sustained winds in some of the bands that were near tropical storm force.

Tropical Depression Sixteen will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some of the western part of the circulation is passing over Nicaragua and the increased friction is the only factor inhibiting intensification.  If the center of circulation stays over water, then the depression will likely strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday.  If the center of circulation moves over northeastern Nicaragua, then the depression will weaken.  The system is likely to strengthen when it moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

A ridge of high pressure is steering the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest and that motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  An upper low near the west coast of Florida is going to move west across the Gulf of Mexico.  When the upper low gets northwest of Tropical Depression Sixteen, it will start to pull the depression more toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen will move near or over northeastern Nicaragua on Thursday.  The depression could drop very heavy rain and cause floods in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.  It is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday and the depression could be near the northeastern Yucatan peninsula by Friday night.  The depression is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  There is more uncertainty about the future track of the system after that time.

Low Pressure Develops Over Southwest Caribbean Sea

An area of low pressure developed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday afternoon and the system was designated Invest 90L.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 90L was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation of Invest 90L was still organizing on Tuesday afternoon.  The area of low pressure appeared to have a distinct center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming south and east of the center of circulation.  There were fewer showers and thunderstorms northwest of the center.  There was some upper level divergence that was pumping mass away to the south and west of the center.

Invest 90L will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the southwest Caribbean Sea is near 30°C and the warm water is fairly deep.  The energy content of the water in that area is high.  An upper level ridge centered over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing northeasterly which are blowing toward the northwestern side of Invest 90L.  Those winds are producing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Invest 90L is likely to become a tropical depression or storm during the next 24 to 48 hours.  If the center remains east of Nicaragua, rapid intensification could occur after the circulation consolidates around the low level center.

Invest 90L is moving slowly toward the west-northwest as it moves near the southern side of a mid-level ridge.  That ridge could steer Invest 90L close to the coast of Nicaragua during the next several days.  The mid-level ridge is forecast to move east to near the Bahamas during the next 24 to 48 hours.  After that time, southerly winds are forecast to steer Invest 90L toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Invest 90L could move very close to Nicaragua during the next day or two.  It could bring locally heavy rain to Nicaragua and Honduras.  Invest 90L could move into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.  The intensity of Invest 90L when it reaches the Gulf will depend on how much it interacts with Nicaragua and the Yucatan peninsula.  If the center stays over water, then it could be a hurricane when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.  If the center spends more time over land, then the system will be weaker when it reaches the Gulf.  Some models are forecasting that a hurricane could make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Harvey Weakens to a Tropical Wave

Tropical Storm Harvey weakened to a tropical wave on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Wave Harvey was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 71.8°W which put it about 765 miles (1230 km) east of Cape Gracias a Dios.  The wave was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

An upper level ridge east of Harvey produced northerly winds that blew toward the top of the former tropical storm.  A subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean produced strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The combination of northerly winds in the upper levels and easterly winds in the lower levels produced strong vertical wind shear which disrupted the vertical structure of Harvey.  A reconnaissance plane was unable to locate a low level center of low pressure on Saturday evening and the National Hurricane Center reclassified the system as a tropical wave.

Tropical Wave Harvey will continue to move west across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the ocean to support a tropical cyclone. When the tropical wave moves under the core of the upper level ridge, the wind shear will decrease.  If the tropical wave moves into a more favorable environment and slows down, a new center of circulation could redevelop.  Models are not forecasting significant redevelopment of the tropical wave at the current time, but the National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the wave for possible redevelopment.

Tropical Storm Franklin Develops Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

A center of circulation developed in a system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven and the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Franklin on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 83.0°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Campeche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City, Belize northward to the Belize/Mexico border.

Visible satellite images just before sunset suggested that a center of circulation had formed in the tropical wave previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven and the National Hurricane Center named it Tropical Storm Franklin.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Franklin is still not well organized.  The apparent center is located near the western edge of an area of thunderstorms.  Most of the thunderstorms are still forming east of the system, which indicates that vertical wind shear is probably still affecting the circulation.  The thunderstorms are producing some upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The environment ahead of Tropical Storm Franklin will become more favorable for intensification.  Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough west of Franklin is producing westerly winds which are causing the vertical wind shear.  The trough is expected to weaken on Monday and when that happens the shear will diminish.  Warm water and less shear should allow Tropical Storm Franklin to strengthen before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula.  Franklin will weaken when it moves over land, but it is likely to re-intensify when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Franklin is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical high centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Franklin could approach the Yucatan peninsula in about 24 hours.  Franklin will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to that area.  The heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Mexico Due to Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven

The National Hurricane Center changed the designation of Invest 90L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven because of the need to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Mexico.  At 5: 00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 82.0°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Campeche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Belize City to the Belize/Mexico border.

A broad area of low pressure formed in a strong tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  There is not a well defined center of circulation within the broad area of low pressure.  Most of the thunderstorms are developing in the eastern half of the circulation.  There are few thunderstorms in the western half of the system.  The thunderstorms in the eastern half of the low are generating some upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the east of the low.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move through a relatively favorable environment over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C.  A small upper level trough to the west of the low is producing westerly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is probably the reason why most of the thunderstorms are in the eastern side of the circulation.  The upper trough is forecast to weaken and the shear is expected to diminish.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven could become a tropical storm over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, which is why the Tropical Storm Warning was issued.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is being steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical high pressure system centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven could reach the Yucatan Peninsula within 36 hours.  It could bring gusty winds and heavy rain when it moves over the Yucatan.  The system could restrengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

NHC Monitoring Two Areas for Tropical Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) was monitoring two areas for possible tropical development on Thursday afternoon.  A strong tropical wave was moving through the southeastern Caribbean Sea and the wave was designated as Invest 90L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Invest 90L was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 65.8°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east of Bonaire.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

Another tropical wave moved off the coast of West Africa on Thursday and NHC designated that wave as Invest 99L.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Invest 99L was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 20.9°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

The tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea will have the most immediate impact to land.  The wave could bring gusty winds to Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao within 24 hours.  The circulation of Invest 90L is elongated in an east-west direction and that is probably because of strong easterly winds blowing in the lower atmosphere.  There are some indications of a counterclockwise rotation on loops of visible satellite imagery, but it is not clear if the rotation extends all the way down to the surface.  The tropical wave is generating winds to near tropical storm force in the northern portion of the wave.  There are numerous thunderstorms developing along the axis of the wave.

Invest 90L is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing southerly winds which are blowing over the top of the tropical wave and those winds are contributing to moderate vertical wind shear.  The strong easterly winds in the lower levels are also contributing to the shear.  Invest 90L could develop into a tropical cyclone when it moves farther west.  The shear could diminish and the Sea Surface Temperatures in the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche are very warm.  NHC is indicating that there is a 20% probability Invest 90L will become a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

The tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic has a better chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.  Invest 99L is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It is moving under the eastern end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is causing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical wave.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear.  When the wave moves farther west, it will move under weaker winds and the wind shear will decrease.  NHC is indicating that there is a 70% probability that Invest 99L will become a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

Tropical Storm Adrian Develops South of Guatemala

Tropical Storm Adrian developed south of Guatemala on Tuesday.  Adrian became the earliest tropical storm to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the satellite era.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 92.3°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Adrian was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A well defined low level center of circulation developed within a large area of thunderstorms over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Tuesday and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Adrian.  A primary rainband wrapped about half way around the western side of the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed farther away from the center.  There were more thunderstorms west of the center, but bands were forming in all quadrants of Tropical Storm Adrian.  The strongest winds were occurring close to the center of circulation, which is the typical structure of a tropical cyclone.  Thunderstorms near the core of Adrian were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping away mass.

Tropical Storm Adrian will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Adrian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature will be about 30.5°C.  An upper level ridge east of Adrian is producing southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear should not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Adrian is likely to intensify during the next several days and it could become a hurricane later this week.

Adrian is moving around the southwestern part of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  When Adrian reaches the western end of the ridge later this week, the tropical storm will turn toward the north and it will move closer toward the coast.

Possible Tropical Development South of El Salvador

A broad area of low pressure has formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador.  The environment is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated the low pressure system as Invest 90E.  NHC is indicating that there is a 50% probability of the formation of a tropical depression during the next 48 hours and an 80% probability of formation during the next five days.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Invest 90E was located at latitude 7.9°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Invest 90E was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

More thunderstorms formed on Monday around a broad area of low pressure south of El Salvador.  Visible satellite imagery suggested a broad counterclockwise rotation of the area of thunderstorms, but there were no indications of a well developed core of the circulation.  Several smaller centers of rotation were visible within the broad low pressure system, but these may be transient features.  The broad area of thunderstorms was producing upper level divergence.  The divergence is pumping out mass and if that continues, then the surface pressure will decrease.

The area of low pressure is in an environment favorable for tropical development.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The low is sitting underneath an upper level ridge and the winds in the upper level are weak.  There is little vertical wind shear and there is nothing to inhibit upper level divergence.  The circulation should continue to organize, which is why the probability of formation of a tropical cyclone is high.

The area of low pressure is in an area where the steering currents are weak and Invest 90E was nearly stationary on Monday.  A high pressure system northeast of the broad area of low pressure system is expected to strengthen.  When that happens, the high is likely to steer the area of low pressure toward the northwest.

Tropical Storm Otto Crosses Into the Eastern North Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm Otto moved steadily along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica and crossed into the eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Otto was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 85.6°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north of Liberia, Costa Rica.  Otto was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The structure of Tropical Storm Otto remained intact as it crossed from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to the eastern North Pacific Ocean.  Radar images from Nicaragua and infrared satellite images both showed that the eye continued to exist.  A ring of strong thunderstorms still surrounds the eye and those storms are generating upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Otto will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C on Friday, and it will move over warmer water during the weekend.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Otto is likely to strengthen back into a hurricane once the entire circulation moves over the eastern North Pacific Ocean and a period of rapid intensification is possible.

A ridge north of Otto is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Otto is expected to move steadily away from the west coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Hurricane Otto Strengthens As It Nears Nicaragua and Costa Rica

Hurricane Otto strengthened quickly on Thursday morning as it neared the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  At 7:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Otto was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 82.9°W which put it about 90 miles (150 km) southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  Otto was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Limon, Costa Rica to Bluefields, Nicaragua.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from the Panama/Costa Rica border to Limon, Costa Rica.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua and from Puntarenas, Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Otto strengthened quickly during the overnight hours.  The reconnaissance plane found a circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km).  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are occurring north and west of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Hurricane Otto are generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the center.

Hurricane Otto is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 20 miles (32 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 26.2.  These indices indicate that Hurricane Otto is capable of causing localized serious wind damage.

Hurricane Otto is moving through a favorable environment and it could strengthen further before it reaches the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  Otto is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.

A ridge of high pressure north of Otto is steering the hurricane toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue today.  On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Otto will make landfall over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica later today.

In addition to localized serious wind damage Hurricane Otto will produce a storm surge along the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  The surge will be highest north of where the center makes landfall because that is where the wind will push the water toward the coast.  Hurricane Otto will produce very heavy rain over parts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  The heavy could cause serious flooding and mudslides in some locations.  Outer rainbands could also produce heavy rain over portions of Honduras and El Salvador.