Tag Archives: Pablo

Pablo Strengthens into a Hurricane Northeast of the Azores

Former Tropical Storm Pablo strengthened into a hurricane northeast of the Azores on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Pablo was located at latitude 42.8°N and longitude 18.3°W which put it about 535 miles (865 km) northeast of Lajes, Azores.  Pablo was moving toward the north-northeast at 32 m.p.h. (52 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Thunderstorms around the eye of former Tropical Storm Pablo strengthened on Sunday morning and Pablo intensified into a hurricane.  The circulation around Hurricane Pablo was still small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Pablo.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Hurricane Pablo was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 18°C.  Water that cold would not normally contain enough energy to support a hurricane.  However the temperature of the air in the middle and upper troposphere is cold enough to allow for potential instability.  Convergence around the center of Hurricane Pablo generated enough rising motion to produce thunderstorms with tall, cold clouds tops around the eye at the center of the hurricane.  Enough water vapor condensed in the thunderstorms to produce a warm core which made Pablo a tropical cyclone.

Even though Hurricane Pablo is over Sea Surface Temperatures that would normal cause a hurricane to weak, Pablo could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours.  It will move through a region where there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  A larger low pressure system west of Pablo is likely to absorb the hurricane in a day or so.

Hurricane Pablo will move around the eastern side of the larger low pressure system.  The low will steer Pablo toward the north during the next 12 hours.  The larger low will turn Pablo toward the northwest on Monday.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Pablo is forecast to remain southwest of Ireland.

Tropical Storm Olga Develops over Gulf of Mexico, Pablo near the Azores

Tropical Storm Olga developed over the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Pablo formed near the Azores on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Olga was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 93.2°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) south of Lake Charles, Louisiana.  Olga was moving toward the north-northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A reconnaissance plane found that former Tropical Depression Seventeen had strengthened by Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane center designated the system as Tropical Storm Olga.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Olga and the plane found that the minimum surface pressure had decreased to 998 mb.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also developing around the tropical storm.  The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted of more showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of Tropical Storm Olga.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation in the northeastern quadrant of Olga.

Tropical Storm Olga could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours.  Olga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over the south central U.S. and Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulationn. Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification while the Olga is over the Gulf of Mexico.  The wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Olga to start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  A cold front will move toward Olga from the northwest and the tropical storm could merge with the front during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Olga toward the north during the next several days. On its anticipated track Olga will make landfall on the coast of Louisiana during Friday night.  Tropical Storm Olga will bring  gusty winds to coastal Louisiana. Olga is likely to drop heavy rain over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and eastern Arkansas. The rain could cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, visible satellite images revealed that a tiny tropical storm had developed at the center of a much larger low pressure system west of the Azores on Friday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Pablo.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 32.2°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) west-southwest of the Azores.  Pablo was moving toward the east-southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Pablo.