Tag Archives: Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Habana Expected to Move Westward

Tropical Cyclone Habana is expected to move westward during the upcoming week. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1150 miles (1850 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to be the equivalent of a major hurricane. A small circular eye reappeared at the center of Habana on infrared satellite images on Sunday afternoon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next several days. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Since the core of Habana is so small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. In that case an eyewall replacement cycle would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Habana.

A high pressure system located south of Tropical Cyclone Habana will strengthen during the next few days. That high pressure system will become the dominant weather system steering Habana. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Tropical Cyclone Habana back toward the west. On its anticipated track Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the upcoming week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iman was speeding away from La Reunion on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 58.5°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua Develops Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Joshua developed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Saturday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 92.0°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Joshua was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around a tropical low southwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Joshua. The circulation around Joshua exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Joshua. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that an eye could be forming at the center of Joshua. Storms around the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Joshua will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Joshua is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Joshua toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Joshua will move farther away from Cocos Island. Joshua will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed north-northeast of Rodrigues. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 65.2°E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) north-northeast of Rodrigues. The depression was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb. The depression is forecast to move toward the west and to strengthen.

Weak Danilo Passes North of Rodrigues

Weak Tropical Cyclone Danilo passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 61.5°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) east of Port Louis, Mauritius. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo weakened into the equivalent of a tropical depression while it passed north of Rodrigues on Saturday. Dry air continued to limit the development of thunderstorms in the circulation around Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of a small upper level ridge east of Madagascar. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though the environment is somewhat favorable for intensification, the drier air around Danilo is likely to continue to inhibit strengthening of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass near pass near Mauritius in about 20 hours. Danilo could be near La Reunion in a day or so. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Danilo moved northeast of Rodrigues on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 66.2°E which put it about 215 miles (350 km) east-northeast of Rodrigues. Danilo was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo continued to be affected by drier. Thunderstorms became more numerous for a time on Thursday and then those storms weakened during Thursday night. A few new thunderstorms began to develop on Friday morning. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) in the southern side of Danilo. Winds in the northern half of the tropical cyclone were weaker than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The drier air around Danilo will continue to inhibit intensification of the tropical cyclone. If the recent increase in thunderstorms persists, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could intensify a little during the next 24 hours. If the drier air causes those thunderstorms to dissipate, then Danilo could weaken to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Danilo toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will pass north of Rodrigues during the next 12 hours. Since the most of the thunderstorms and the strongest winds are in the southern half of the circulation, Danilo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Rodrigues. Tropical Cyclone Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in less than 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Dailo weakened south of Diego Garcia on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 74.0°E which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Northerly winds carried dry air from Asia across the Indian Ocean and some of the dry air was pulled into the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo. The dry air mixed with the moister air in the eyewall and rainbands, which caused the thunderstorms in those regions to weaken. When the thunderstorms weakened, downdrafts that transported stronger winds to the surface also weakened. The eye and eyewall at the center of circulation dissipated. Bands in the northern half of Danilo consisted of showers and lower clouds. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the flow of drier air diminishes, then Tropical Cyclone Danilo could strengthen again. However, if the flow of drier air remains strong, then intensification is unlikely. Slight intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be north of Rodrigues in 60 hours. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in about four days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 76.4°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo intensified south of Diego Garcia on Monday night. After the circulation around Danilo fully absorbed the circulation of a tropical depression, the tropical cyclone began intensify again. An eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was evident on microwave satellite images. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Danilo. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Danilo is very likely to intensify during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Danilo toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in four days. Danilo could approach Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Swirls South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Danilo swirled south of Diego Garcia on Saturday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 72.9°E which put it about 285 miles (455 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was moving toward the east-southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo was beginning to interact with the circulation around a tropical depression southeast of Danilo. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 76.8°E which put it about 570 miles (970 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. The depression was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo strengthened on Saturday even though it was starting to interact with the tropical depression. The strongest thunderstorms in Danilo were occurring in bands north and west of the center. Bands south and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the shear will inhibit intensification. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo will interact with the circulation around the tropical depression to its southeast. The interaction of the two circulations will temporarily disrupt the circulation on the eastern side of Danilo and that could prevent intensification during the next 48 hours. Eventually, the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Danilo will absorb the circulation of the tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo and the tropical depression will make a slow clockwise revolution while two circulations merge. Danilo will move toward the south-southeast during the next day or two. After Danilo absorbs the tropical depression, a high pressure system north of the tropical cyclone will steer Danilo toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo will gradually move farther away from Diego Garcia. Danilo could be northeast of Rodrigues in five days.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Forms South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Danilo formed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 72.3°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system strengthened on Friday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Danilo. There was a well defined low level center of circulation evident on satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center. Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

There was also a tropical depression located east-southeast of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 81.4°E which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. The depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. However, the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo will interact with the circulation around the tropical depression to its east-southeast. The interaction of the two circulations will disrupt the circulation on the eastern side of Danilo and that could prevent intensification during the next several days. Eventually,the two circulations are forecast to merge next week.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Danilo could move slowly toward the southeast when the the tropical depression approaches it during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo is forecast to remain south of Diego Garcia. Danilo could eventually move west toward Rodrigues next week.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Makes Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 117.8°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Port Hedland, Australia. It was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland on Thursday night. The tropical cyclone intensified slightly just before landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The tropical cyclone brought gusty winds to the area around Port Hedland. A weather station in Port Hedland reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone 03S will drop heavy rain over parts of Western Australia as it moves rapidly inland. Flood Warnings were in effect for the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River, the De Grey River catchment, the Salt Lakes District Rivers, the Sandy Desert, and the Warburton District Rivers.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo weakened east of Rodrigues. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) east of Rodrigues. It was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Moves Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone 03S moved toward Western Australia on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 111.8°E which put it about 595 miles (955 km) northwest of Port Hedland, Australia. It was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

There was a well defined low level center of circulation in Tropical Cyclone 03S, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southwest of the center. Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone 03S was under the western part of an upper level ridge. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear could decrease a little. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 03S could strengthen during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03S will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Port Hedland in about 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia later this week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo moved slowly toward Rodrigues. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 75.8°E which put it about 835 miles (1345 km) east of Rodrigues. Bongoyo was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.