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Eta Strengthens to a Hurricane, Hurricane Watch for Tampa

A NOAA plane found that former Tropical Storm Eta had strengthened back into a hurricane on Wednesday morning. A Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida that included Tampa and St. Petersburg. At 7:35 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Eta was located at latitude 25.8°N and longitude 83.8°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) south-southwest of Tampa, Florida. Eta was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown, Florida. The Hurricane Watch included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida. The Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

Former Storm Eta strengthened back to a hurricane on Wednesday morning, but it appeared to be moving back into a pool of drier air over the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms increased around the center of Eta when it was over the warm water in the Loop Current on Tuesday, but the thunderstorms were weakening on Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms near the center of Hurricane Eta were not as tall as they were on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles in the western half of the circulation.

Hurricane Eta will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. The drier air over the Gulf of Mexico will limit intensification. Hurricane Eta is not likely to intensify much more on Wednesday because of the drier air. The upper level trough will move closer to Eta on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. The shear and drier air will cause Eta to weaken after it makes landfall on the west coast of Florida.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Eta toward the north-northeast during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Eta could approach Tampa on Wednesday night. The center of Eta is forecast to pass just to the west of Tampa and make landfall north of Tampa. Eta could be near hurricane strength when it passes near Tampa. Southwesterly winds blowing around the east side of Tropical Storm Eta could push water into Tampa Bay. Eta could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters). Hurricane Eta will also drop heavy rain over Central Florida. Floods could occur in that area. Eta could also cause widespread power outages in Central Florida.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Theta churned southwest of the Azores. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 34.7°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Eta Turns Back Toward Florida

Tropical Storm Eta tuned back toward Florida on Tuesday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.5°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of the Dry Tortugas. Eta was moving toward the north- northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, Florida. The Warning included Tampa and St. Petersburg. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, Florida.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta exhibited more organization on Tuesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the the eastern and northern side of the the center of circulation. There were occasional indications that an eye could be forming at the center of Eta. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Eta. There were more thunderstorms in the bands in the northeastern half of Eta. Bands in the southwestern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment more favorable for intensification on Wednesday. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which blow toward the top of Eta’s circulation on Wednesday. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta could strengthen back into a hurricane on Wednesday. The upper level trough will move closer to Eta on Thursday and the wind shear will increase. The shear could get strong enough to cause Eta to weaken.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Eta toward the north-northeast during the next 24 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Eta will pass west of the Florida Keys on Wednesday. The center of Tropical Storm Eta could approach Tampa on Thursday morning. Eta could be near hurricane strength when it passes near Tampa. Southwesterly winds blowing around the east side of Tropical Storm Eta could push water into Tampa Bay. Eta could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters).

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Subtropical Storm Theta nade a transition to a strong tropical storm. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 35.5°W which put it about 770 miles (1235 km) southwest of the Azores. Theta was moving toward the east-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Michael Strengthens Into a Hurricane, Watches Issued for Gulf Coast

Former Tropical Storm Michael strengthened into a hurricane on Monday morning and Watches were issued for portions of the Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 84.9°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of the western end of Cuba.  Michael was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border and from Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island, Florida.  A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cuban province of Isle of Youth and for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

Hurricane Michael continued to organize quickly.  A circular eye with a diameter of about 30 miles (50 km) was forming at the center of Michael.  A ring of strong thunderstorms was wrapping around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were wrapping around the core of Hurricane Michael.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) primarily to the northeast of the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 17.2.

Hurricane Michael will move into an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification.  Michael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the upper level trough will move westward away from Hurricane Michael and the wind shear will decrease.  Hurricane Michael will continue to strengthen when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and it could intensify rapidly once the eye and eyewall are fully formed.  Hurricane Michael is likely to strengthen into a major hurricane.

Hurricane Michael will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system centered over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Michael in a northerly direction during the next several days.  It will get bigger and stronger during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will approach the northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  It is likely to be a major hurricane at that time.  Hurricane Michael has the potential to cause a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) at the coast.  It will bring strong winds which could cause regional major damage and result in significant power outages.  Locally heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Storm Michael Strengthens East of Yucatan

Tropical Storm Michael strengthened east of the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 85.4°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Michael was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Michael is still organizing and the distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  A new center of circulation formed on Sunday afternoon near those thunderstorms.  Many of the rainbands in the western half of Tropical Storm Michael contain primarily showers and lower clouds.  One outer rainband in the southwestern periphery of the circulation does contain numerous thunderstorms.  The strongest winds are occurring in the rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Michael.  The winds are weaker on the western side of the circulation.  Storms on the eastern side of Michael are generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm and was allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is producing westerly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Michael.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which was slowing the rate of intensification, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent Michael from strengthening.  The wind shear is probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The upper level trough will move westward during the next few days and the upper level winds will weaken.  Michael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is warmer than 30°C.  Tropical Storm Michael will strengthen slowly during the next 24 hours.  However, it will intensify more rapidly on Tuesday when the upper level winds weaken.  Michael will strengthen into a hurricane when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and it could intensify into a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Michael has been moving slowly while the circulation organizes and the center reforms.  Michael will move around the southwestern part of the subtropical high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Michael in a northward direction during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Michael will pass between the western end of Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula on Monday.  Michael could approach northern Florida by Wednesday.  It will be a hurricane at that time and it could be a major hurricane.  Michael could produce strong winds, a significant storm surge and drop heavy rain when it reaches the coast.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Forms Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Subtropical Storm Alberto formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated an area of low pressure as Subtropical Storm Alberto on Friday morning based on data from buoys and ship reports.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 86.3°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Alberto was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the U.S. coast from Indian Pass, Florida to Grand Isle, Louisiana including New Orleans.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.  The government of Cuba issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Subtropical Storm Alberto was asymmetrical.  The low level center of circulation was located just to east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band located about 100 miles (160 km) east and north of the center.  Flow around an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear which was the reason why the thunderstorms were occurring well to the east of the center of circulation.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Alberto will move over water where  the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level trough will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear during the next day or so.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Some gradual strengthening is possible.  The winds are weaker near the axis of the upper level trough.  If Alberto moves under the axis of the trough when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico, then the wind shear will decrease.  Alberto could strengthen more quickly if that happens.  There is a chance that Alberto could reach hurricane intensity.  If more thunderstorms form closer to the center of circulation, then NHC could change the designation of Alberto to a tropical storm.

Subtropical Storm Alberto is moving around the western end of a large high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is steering Alberto slowly toward the north-northeast.  A general motion toward the north is forecast during the next day or so.  When Alberto gets farther north, the upper level trough could steer it more toward the north-northwest.  There is a chance that the steering currents could weaken when Alberto nears the Gulf Coast.  Thus, there is much more uncertainty about the track forecast after that time.

The greatest risk with Subtropical Storm Alberto will be locally heavy rain and the potential for flooding.  Most of the heavy rain is likely to fall north and east of the center.  Much less rain is likely to fall from the western side of Alberto.  The coast of the Gulf of Mexico is very susceptible to storm surges.  The water level will rise along the eastern and northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico where the winds blow the water toward the shoreline.