Tag Archives: Port Louis

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Forms Northwest of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Cocos Islands on Monday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 9.4°S and longitude 93.8°E which put it about 285 miles (455 km) northwest of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the east-northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Cocos Islands strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Anggrek’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Anggrek.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 ours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the eastern part of the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Anggrek’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek could strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the southern part of a near equatorial ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will steer Anggrek toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will meander slowly northwest of the Cocos Islands. A high pressure system west of Australia is likely to steer Anggrek toward the south later this week. A Watch has been issued for Cocos Islands.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Belal moved south of Mauritius. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 58.3°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Belal was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Belal Forms over Southwest Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Belal formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Friday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 400 miles (605 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius. Belal was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean north-northwest of Mauritius strengthened on Friday and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Belal. More thunderstorms formed near center center of Belal’s circulation. Thunderstorms also increased in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Belal. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Belal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Belal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Belal will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Belal could intensify rapidly after an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops. Tropical Cyclone Belal could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Belal will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Belal toward the southwest on Saturday. Tropical Cyclone Belal will turn back toward the southeast after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Belal could approach Mauritius and La Reunion in 60 hours. Belal could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it approaches Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Freddy was moving toward the west-southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy passed north of Mauritius on Monday morning. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Mauritius. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Freddy’s circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Freddy was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.3. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was stronger than Hurricane Harvey was, when Harvey hit the coast of Texas in 2017. Freddy was similar in size to Harvey. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. Concentric eyewalls would cause an eyewall replacement cycle that would cause Tropical Cyclone Freddy to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be north of La Reunion later today. Bands in the southern side of Freddy’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mauritius and La Reunion during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the east coast of Madagascar in 24 hours. Freddy is likely to still be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hits Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati passed north of Mauritius on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 57.7°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati continued to have the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A small eye was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emanti could eventually strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from Mauritius on Saturday. Emnati will pass north of La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 60.9°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were blowing in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have formed. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 30 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 60 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Intensifies Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati intensified northeast of Mauritius on Thursday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 62.6°E which put it about 595 miles (960 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened on Thursday. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was forming at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the developing core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once the inner core with an eye and a complete eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 72 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach Madagascar in less than five days.

Tropical Cyclone Forms North-Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed north-northeast of Mauritius on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 12S was located at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 60.5°E which put it about 430 miles (695 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 12S formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean early on Sunday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 12S was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring southeast of the center of circulation. Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The winds in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone 12S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 12S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak bear the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. There is drier air to the north of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Drier air could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. If drier air inhibits the formation of thunderstorms, then it could prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone 12S. Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone 12S is small, changes in the environment could have big effects on the circulation. Tropical Cyclone 12S could get a little stronger during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 12S will move north of a subtropical high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 12S will pass north of Mauritius in 24 hours. The small size of the circulation means that the tropical cyclone should have little effect on Mauritius. Tropical Cyclone 12S could be north of La Reunion in 36 hours. The tropical cyclone could reach northern Madagascar in less than three days.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved toward Madagascar on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 53.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be nearing the completion of another eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday night. The inner eyewall consisted mostly of a small ring of showers and lower clouds. A much larger eye was evident on satellite images. The outer eyewall consisted of a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the larger eye. Storms near the core of Batsirai’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completion of another eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to increase in size again. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (365 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could weaken during the next few hours while it fully completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 36 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Drops Heavy Rain on La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped heavy rain on La Reunion on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 95 miles (150 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped very heavy rain over La Reunion on Thursday morning. A weather station at La Nouvelle reported 516.7 mm (20.34 inches) of rain. Batsirai moved slowly during the past 18 hours. The slow movement caused persistent easterly winds to blow up the eastern sides of mountains. The persistent rising motion produced very heavy rain on the eastern slopes. The very heavy rain was likely causing widespread flash floods. The heavy rain will continue until Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moves farther away from La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to have concentric eyewalls based on radar images from La Reunion and on satellite images. A small inner eye and eyewall was present inside a larger outer eyewall. The inner eyewall was weakening, but it was still visible on radar and satellite images. Eventually, the inner eyewall will dissipate and the strongest winds will occur in the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai contracted slightly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. The heaviest rain will continue to fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Continued heavy rain could cause devastating flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Brings Wind and Rain to Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to Mauritius on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 56.3°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of Mauritius on Wednesday, but it still brought wind and rain. A weather station at Champ de Mars, near Port Louis, reported a wind speed of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h). Another weather station near Port Louis at Bell Village reported 6.01 inches (152.7 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The tiny inner eyewall dissipated and a new larger eye was apparent on satellite images. Batsirai may have been near Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before the inner eyewall dissipated. The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai increased during the eyewall replacement cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 53.0.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened after the eyewall replacement cycle, but it could strengthen again since the inner core is still intact. There is a chance that Batsirai could reach Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Weather conditions on Mauritius will improve gradually as Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will pass north of La Reunion during the next 24 hours. Although the strongest winds in Batsirai will pass north of La Reunion, it could experience strong winds and locally heavy rain. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar within 60 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.