Category Archives: Western North Pacific

Western Pacific Typhoons and Tropical Storms

Powerful Typhoon Doksuri Moves Near Northern Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Doksuri moved near northern Luzon on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 124.2°E which put it about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Doksuri was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Typhoon Doksuri strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean just to the east of northern Luzon. A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was present at the center of Doksuri’s circulation. The eye was surrounded with a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Doksuri. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Doksuri was a large typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 295 miles (475 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Doksuri was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 60.4. Typhoon Doksuri was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Wilma just before Wilma hit the Yucatan Peninsula in 2005. Doksuri was capable of causing widespread severe damage.

Typhoon Doksuri will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Doksuri could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall at the core of Doksuri, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls, form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Doksuri to weaken.

Typhoon Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the core of Typhoon Doksuri could pass just north of Escarpada Point in northeastern Luzon. The strongest part of Doksuri could affect the Babuyan Islands and the Batanes Islands north of Luzon. Doksuri will bring extremely strong winds and very heavy rain to the Babuyan Islands and the Batanes Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Typhoon Doksuri could cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (5 meters) along the coast of some of the islands where the wind pushes water toward the shore. Heavy rain could also fall over parts of northern Luzon. The core of Doksuri could be south of Taiwan in 36 hours.

Typhoon Doksuri Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Doksuri rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 390 miles (615 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Doksuri rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday. An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) was at the center of Doksuri’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Doksuri. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Doksuri increased when Doksuri rapidly intensified. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (355 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Doksuri was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.3. Doksuri was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Typhoon Doksuri will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Doksuri will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Doksuri could intensify rapidly at times.

Typhoon Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Doksuri could be near northeastern Luzon within 36 hours. Doksuri could approach southern Taiwan in 60 hours.

Doksuri Rapidly Intensifies to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Doksuri rapidly intensified to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 127.4°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Doksuri rapidly intensified to a typhoon during the past 12 hours. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Doksuri’s circulation. An eye at the center of circulation was evident on conventional and microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Doksuri. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Doksuri increased while Doksuri rapidly intensified. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Doksuri was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.0.

Typhoon Doksuri will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Doksuri is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Doksuri could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Doksuri could be near northeastern Luzon within 48 hours. Doksuri could approach southern Taiwan in 72 hours.

Tropical Storm Doksuri Intensifies East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Doksuri intensified east of the Philippines on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Doksuri was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 128.7°E which put it about 830 miles (1340 km) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Storm Doksuri exhibited better organization as it intensified over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. More thunderstorms developed in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Doksuri. Bands in the western half of Doksuri still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Doksuri.

Tropical Storm Doksuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Doksuri will intensify during the next 24 hours. Doksuri is likely to strengthen to a typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Doksuri will move closer to northern Luzon. Doksuri could reach Taiwan in less than four days.

Tropical Storm Doksuri Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Doksuri formed east of the Philippines on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Doksuri was located at latitude 14.0°N and longitude 133.0°E which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) east of Legazpi, Philippines. Doksuri was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Thursday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Doksuri. The circulation around Tropical Storm Doksuri exhibited more organization on satellite images. More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Doksuri’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Doksuri will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge east of the Philippines. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Doksuri will intensify during the next 48 hours. Doksuri is likely to strengthen to a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Doksuri will move around the southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Doksuri slowly toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Doksuri will move closer to northern Luzon.

Typhoon Talim Brings Wind and Rain to Southern China

Typhoon Talim brought wind and rain to southern China on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 110.5°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Zhanjiang, China. Talim was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

The center of Typhoon Talim made landfall on the south coast of China near Zhanjiang on Monday. The size of the circulation around Typhoon Talim increased as it approached the coast. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Talim’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of circulation.

The eye of Typhoon Talim was on the coast of southern China near Zhanjiang. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over parts of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Winds blowing around the northern side of Typhoon Talim were pushing water toward the coast and the winds were generating a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters).

Typhoon Talim will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Talim toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Talim will move inland over southern China. Typhoon Talim will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern China during the next 36 hours. Talim will produce strong winds and heavy rain in southwestern Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Talim will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Vietnam when it moves farther west.

Talim Strengthens to a Typhoon South of Hong Kong

Former Tropical Storm Talim strengthened to a typhoon south of Hong Kong on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of Hong Kong. Talim was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Talim strengthened steadily during the weekend and Talim reached typhoon intensity on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Talim’s circulation. An eye was evident on conventional and microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Typhoon Talim. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northern side of Talim’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Talim.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge that extends from the Western North Pacific Ocean to China. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Talim’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Typhoon Talim will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Talim will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Talim toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Talim will make landfall on the coast of south China near Zhanjiang and Leizhou in 24 hours. Typhoon Talim will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern China. Talim will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Typhoon Talim could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of southern China. Talim will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Vietnam early next week.

Tropical Storm Talim Forms over South China Sea

Tropical Storm Talim formed over the South China Sea during Friday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Talim was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 117.7°E which put it about 360 miles (585 km) southeast of Hong Kong. Talim was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A large low pressure system over the South China Sea strengthened during Friday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Talim. The circulation around Tropical Storm Talim was very large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Talim’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of the circulation. Even though the circulation around Tropical Storm Talim was large, the winds were weaker near the center of circulation. There were few thunderstorms near the center of circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and southern sides of Tropical Storm Talim.

Tropical Storm Talim will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The water at the surface of the South China Sea is very warm. Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge that extends from the Western North Pacific Ocean to China. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Talim’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Talim is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours in spite of the vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Talim will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Talim toward the northwest during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Talim could be south of Hong Kong in less than 48 hours. Talim could approach the coast of southern China early next week. Tropical Storm Talim could be a typhoon when it approaches southern China.

Guchol Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Typhoon Guchol weakened to a tropical storm over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Guchol was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 136.0°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Former Typhoon Guchol weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday when it moved into a less favorable environment. An upper level trough west of Japan produced westerly winds that blew toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused Guchol to weaken. There was no longer an eye at the center of Guchol’s circulation. Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Guchol. Bands in the western and southern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Guchol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Guchol will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. The upper level trough west of Japan will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Guchol will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler water and is affected by moderate vertical wind shear. Guchol could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone early next week.

The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Guchol toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Guchol will pass south of Tokyo in less than 24 hours.

Typhoon Guchol Turns Northeast

Typhoon Guchol turned toward the northeast on Saturday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Guchol was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 131.3°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) south of Minamidiatojima, Japan. Guchol was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Guchol started to turn toward the northeast on Saturday, as it was affected by an upper level trough west of Japan. The upper level trough was producing westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds were causing the vertical wind shear to increase and the increasing shear was affecting the structure of Typhoon Guchol. There was still an eye at the center of Guchol’s circulation, but thunderstorms were only occurring in the eastern part of the eyewall. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the eastern half of the typhoon. Bands in the western half of Typhoon Guchol consisted primarily of showers and low clouds. Storms in the eastern side of Guchol generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Guchol. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Guchol will move through an environment that will become even less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guchol will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The upper level trough west of Japan will continue to produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Guchol’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase even more. The increase in wind shear will make the environment even less favorable for intensification. Typhoon Guchol will weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Japan will steer Typhoon Guchol toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Guchol could pass between Minamidaitojima and Iwo To during the next 24 hours. Guchol will pass south of Tokyo in less than 48 hours.