Category Archives: South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Jasper intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 157.3°E which put it about 205 miles (330 km) west-southwest of Honiara, Guadacanal. Jasper was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasper’s circulation. An eye was visible on satellite images at the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 10 miles (15 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are ridge weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will intensify during the next 36 hours. Jasper could intensify rapidly after the eye and eyewall are fully developed. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will very likely strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasper will move away from the Solomon Islands. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the Solomon Islands until it moves away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could approach the coast of Queensland, Australia in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Forms Near the Solomon Islands

Tropical Cyclone Jasper formed over the Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands on Monday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 9.6°S and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) west of Honiara, Guadacanal. Jasper was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea near the Solomon Islands strengthened during Monday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasper was organizing rapidly. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Jasper’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Jasper’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are ridge weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will intensify during the next 36 hours. Jasper will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasper will move away from the Solomon Islands. Tropical Cyclone Jasper will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the Solomon Islands until it moves away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Jasper could approach the coast of Queensland, Australia in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Forming over Solomon Islands

A tropical cyclone is forming over the Solomon Islands. The system is currently designated as Invest 92P by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. At 1:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Invest 92P was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 158.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) west-northwest of Honiara, Guadacanal. Invest 92P was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Solomon Islands was gradually becoming better organized on Monday morning. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the system as Invest 92P. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the low pressure system. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Invest 92P is very likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.

The low pressure system will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Invest 92P toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move away from the Solomon Islands and over the Coral Sea. Invest 92P will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain in the Solomon Islands until it moves away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Moves South of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mal moved south of Fiji during Tuesday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 179.0°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures caused the structure of Tropical Cyclone Mal to start to change during Tuesday night. An eye was not longer present at the center of Mal’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Bands in the other parts of Mal’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Mal was in the process of making a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mal increased when it started to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Coral Sea. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Mal to weaken during the next 36 hours. Mal will continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Coral Sea will steer Tropical Cyclone Mal toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will continue to move farther away from Fiji.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Passes West of Fiji

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mal passed just to the west of Fiji on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 175.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Radar from the Fiji Meteorological Service showed the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal passing just to the west of Viti Levu on Tuesday morning. A weather station at the airport in Nadi (NFFN) reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Mal was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passed just to the west of Fiji on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was at the center of Mal’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Coral Sea. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Mal to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the Coral Sea will steer Tropical Cyclone Mal toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will move south of Fiji.

The eastern side of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Mal could pass close to the west coast of Viti Levu. A rainband on the eastern side of Mal’s circulation could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the western part of Viti Levu. Scattered electricity outages are possible. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Mal could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the northern and western coasts of Viti Levu. Mal could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Kadavu and Ono.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Mal intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean northwest of Fiji on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 175.1°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mal rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Fiji on Monday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Mal’s circulation. Microwave satellite images suggested that an eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Mal’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Mal is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mal toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will pass just to the west of Viti Levu in 12 to 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Fiji. The strongest winds and heaviest rain will affect Viti Levu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Scattered outages of electricity are possible. Tropical Cyclone Mal could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the north and west coasts of Viti Levu.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Forms Northwest of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mal formed over the South Pacific Ocean northwest of Fiji on Sunday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 11.9°S and longitude 172.3°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean northwest of Fiji strengthened during Sunday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mal. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mal exhibited more organization on Monday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Mal’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Mal will intensify during the next 24 hours. Mal could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mal toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will approach Fiji in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Fiji. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Lola Hits Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Lola hit Vanuatu on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 167.5°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Norsup, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it hit the central part of Vanuatu on Tuesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Lola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Lola was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.7. Tropical Cyclone Lola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Lola will move across Malekula during the next few hours. The strong winds in the eastern side of Lola’s circulation will hit Malekula, Ambrym and Epi. Tropical Cyclone Lola is capable of causing regional major damage. Heavy rain will also fall on Malekula, Ambrym and Epi. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location. Lola could cause a storm surge of up to ten feet (three meters) along the north coasts of Malekula, Ambrym and Epi, when the wind blows the water toward the land.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea will approach Lola from the west. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Lola’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Lola is likely to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Lola Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 169.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east of Sola, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Lola’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that large quantities of pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Lola was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensiy Size Index (HWISI) was 35.7. Tropical Cyclone Lola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Lola could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea will approach Lola from the west later today. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Lola’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Lola could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system centered northeast of New Zealand. The high pressure system will steer Lola toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lola will approach Vanuatu during the next 24hours. Lola will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Espiritu Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Ambrym and Malekula. Tropical Cyclone Lola will be capable of causing regional major damage. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Lola could cause a storm surge of up to ten feet (three meters) in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Lola Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu on Sunday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 169.3°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Sola, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) formed at the center of Lola’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Lola’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Lola will intensify during the next 24 hours. Lola could intensify rapidly to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system centered northeast of New Zealand. The high pressure system will steer Lola toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lola will move just to the east of northern Vanuatu. Lola will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Vanua Lava, Mota Lava, Mota, Ureparapara and Gaua. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Lola could cause a storm surge of seven feet (two meters) in some places. Lola could be near Espiritu Santo in 36 hours.