Tropical Cyclone Fili Strengthens Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fili’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Even though Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened, some drier air appeared to be pulled into the western half of its circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fili. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western half of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. The drier air in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the circulation. The drier air will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Fili could intensify during the next 24 hours, but the drier air could limit strengthening.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the south-southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili will pass west of New Caledonia during the next 36 hours. Rainbands in the eastern half of Fili will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.