Tag Archives: Maewo

Tropical Storm Lola Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of Vanuatu on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola was located at latitude 13.7°S and longitude 169.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east of Sola, Vanuatu. Lola was moving toward the south-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lola rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Lola’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that large quantities of pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Lola. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Lola was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensiy Size Index (HWISI) was 35.7. Tropical Cyclone Lola was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Lola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Lola could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea will approach Lola from the west later today. The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Lola’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Tropical Cyclone Lola could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Lola will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system centered northeast of New Zealand. The high pressure system will steer Lola toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Lola will approach Vanuatu during the next 24hours. Lola will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Espiritu Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Ambrym and Malekula. Tropical Cyclone Lola will be capable of causing regional major damage. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Lola could cause a storm surge of up to ten feet (three meters) in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Strengthens near Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Judy strengthened near Vanuatu on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 168.4°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Naone, Vanuatu. Judy was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Judy strengthened over the Southwest Pacific Ocean near Maewo on Monday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of Judy’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Judy’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Judy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge near Vanuatu. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Judy will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Judy toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Judy move over Maewo during the next few hours. The center of Judy will also pass near Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna. The center of Tropical Cyclone Judy could be near Port Vila in less than 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves across Vanuatu. Judy will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Judy will also cause a storm surge where the wind blows water toward the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Judy Forms North of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Judy formed over the Southwest Pacific Ocean north of Vanuatu on Sunday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 170.7°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Fatutaka. Judy was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean north of Vanuatu strengthened on Sunday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Judy. Thunderstorms developed near the center of Judy’s circulation. Those thunderstorms began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Other thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Judy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Judy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge east of Vanuatu. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Judy will intensify during the next 36 hours. Judy could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer Judy toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Judy will move toward the south when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Judy could be near Maewo in 24 hours. The center of Judy will pass near Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango and Tanna. The center of Tropical Cyclone Judy could be near Port Vila in 42 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Judy will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over Vanuatu. Judy will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Judy will also cause a storm surge where the wind blows water toward the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Gina Forms East of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Gina formed over the South Pacific Ocean east of Vanuatu on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gina was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Gina was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Vanuatu strengthened on Wednesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gina. The low level center of Tropical Cyclone Gina was located east of Maewo and northeast of Pentecost. The distribution of thunderstorms around Gina’s circulation was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Gina. Bands in the other parts of Gina’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough over the Coral Sea was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Gina. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Gina’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gina will move into an environment that is only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gina will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level trough over the Coral Sea will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will strongly inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gina could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds weaken slightly. If the wind shear increases, then Gina could weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Gina will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gina toward the southwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Gina will move across Pentecost during the next 12 hours. The center of Gina could pass just north of Ambrym and it could move across Malekula within 24 hours. Since the strongest thunderstorms are in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Gina, the gustiest winds and heaviest rain could affect Efate and Port Vila. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Harold strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday.  After weakening while the eye crossed the southern end of Espiritu Santo, the core of Harold rapidly intensified and the tropical cyclone became even more powerful.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h.  and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (320 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 912 mb.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Harold weakened when the eye moved across the southern end of Espiritu Santo.  For a time the eye was less distinct of satellite images.  However, the eye cleared out quickly after it moved back over water and the core of Harold strengthened further.  By Monday a small, well formed eye was evident infrared satellite images.  The eye had a diameter of 12 miles (19 km).  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Harold was 36.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 52.8.  Harold was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Harold passed over the southern end of Espiritu Santo.  It then passed near the northern end of Malekula before battering Pentecost and Ambrym.  Harold likely caused catastrophic wind damage in those locations.  Tropical Cyclone Harold also dropped locally heavy rain over Espiritu Santo, Malekula, Pentecost, Maewo, and Ambrym.  Flash flooding probably occurred on those islands.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move through an environment capable of support an intense tropical cyclone during the next several days.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone Harold to weaken.  Tropical cyclones generally do not maintain Category 5 intensity for an extended period of time.  So, Tropical Cyclone Harold is likely to start to weaken within 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold toward the east-southeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Harold will move away from Vanuatu.  Harold could approach Fiji within 36 hours and it could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Batters Espiritu Santo

Tropical Cyclone Harold battered Espiritu Santo on Sunday.  The eye of Harold moved over the southwestern part of Espiritu Santo.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 166.4°E which put it about 60 miles west-northwest of Luganville, Vanuatu.  Harold was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Harold strengthened on Sunday as it slowly approached northern Vanuatu.  A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was evident on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Harold.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Harold was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 43.2.  Harold was capable of causing significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold toward the east-southeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold will move across the southern end of Espiritu Santo.  The center will also pass near the northern end of Malekula, near the southern end of Pentecost and near Ambrym.  Tropical Cyclone Harold will drop heavy rain over Espiritu Santo, Malekula, Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Ambae and Maewo.  Harold will move slowly and the heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Strong winds blowing toward the coast could produce significant storm surges on the eastern and northern coasts of some islands.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  Since the core of Tropical Cyclone Harold will pass over the southern end of Espiritu Santo, increased friction will cause the circulation to weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours.