Monthly Archives: January 2021

Tropical Low Strengthens over Gulf of Carpentaria

A tropical low strengthened over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 138.5°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Mornington Island. The tropical low was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland to Pormpuraaw. The Watch included Mornington Island.

The circulation around the tropical low exhibited better organization on Saturday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical low. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak. There will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a tropical storm.

The tropical low will move south of a high pressure system centered north of Australia. The high will steer the tropical low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical low will make landfall on the coast of Queensland between Karumba and Gilbert River Mouth in about 24 hours. It will be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it makes landfall. The tropical low could stall when it moves inland, which would cause a prolonged period of heavy rain. Flash floods could occur in parts of northern Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo Forms South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Danilo formed south of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Danilo was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 72.3°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) south of Diego Garcia. Danilo was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system strengthened on Friday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Danilo. There was a well defined low level center of circulation evident on satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Danilo. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and west of the center. Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

There was also a tropical depression located east-southeast of Tropical Cyclone Danilo. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 14.4°S and longitude 81.4°E which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. The depression was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. Danilo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. However, the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Danilo will interact with the circulation around the tropical depression to its east-southeast. The interaction of the two circulations will disrupt the circulation on the eastern side of Danilo and that could prevent intensification during the next several days. Eventually,the two circulations are forecast to merge next week.

Tropical Cyclone Danilo will remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. Danilo could move slowly toward the southeast when the the tropical depression approaches it during the weekend. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Danilo is forecast to remain south of Diego Garcia. Danilo could eventually move west toward Rodrigues next week.